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Last week we talked about some typical resistances to information about change we see on the client or public side. Lest we get arrogant and focus on “them” being at fault, let’s take a look at some problems from the futurist side. UH Foresight alum Mary Jane Naquin reminded me of a wonderful piece that Joe Coates & Jennifer Jarratt put together on Exploring the Future. While the piece focused on and celebrated the growing competence of futurists, it did note some problems that futurists had with forecasts, or scenarios in today’s vernacular. This is not about implementation, which would be a separate piece. The original article was written in 1992 (futurists used the term forecasts regularly back then). Here their list of six reasons why futurists (specifically their forecasts) fail:
- Straight-line extrapolation: assume today’s trends continue into the future without any major shifts; interestingly, at U of Houston, with Framework Foresight we routinely include a continuity or baseline futures as part of a set of alternative futures.
- Unexamined assumptions: it is easy to overlook implicit and therefore unstated beliefs.
- Limited expertise: or over-estimation of one’s expertise; thinking we know more about the domain than we actually do.
- Lack of imagination: they used an example of Harper’s Weekly proclaiming that the building of roads for motor cars is not for the near future.
- Neglect of constraints: we might put this today as neglecting one or more aspects of STEEP; most often a focus on technology that underestimates other aspects that need to be in place.
- Excessive optimism: optimism is useful, but excessive is not.
I think this list stands the test of time. But maybe I’m forgetting something. Anything you would add? – Andy Hines
Yes…. that’s the list! Thanks for looking back to find it. It still holds value for today’s forecasters!
Andy, as you know I’ve been a rabid forecaster for decades and I find that list just as valid today as it was then. However, I’m now challenging myself to think in terms of patterns and not forecasts.
In an age of growing uncertainty I find forecasting increasingly difficult and flawed. Forecasts are now becoming useful in ever decreasing time frames in my opinion and reflected in the mantra that “the future is unknowable”.
So, I’m moving away from linear forecasting to holistic answers through pattern matching and building systems that can find those rapidly. Once the pattern has been found it is then far easier to develop a more agile and robust strategy than pinning your hopes on forecasts.
Happy to chat more about this if you are interested.
That’s interesting, Mike, about patterns . I’ve always thought that particularly our social futures are shaped by underlying patterns that most people tend not to recognize. That may not be what you are talking about, but if you recognize a pattern that is emerging then you may have an opportunity to shape and influence it.