by 
Last night we had a class in World Futures on wildcards in which we reviewed Oliver Markley’s wonderful piece that includes sources of resistance to information about wildcards. As I reviewed this list, I couldn’t help but think that these sources of resistance seem pretty applicable as sources of resistance to information about change in general. In short, why do we resist information about the possibility of change? Markley (2011) suggests six sources:
- Passive Disbelief /Ignorance)—wherein a given wild card isn’t seen as credible more or less simply due to a lack of knowledge, rather than from some competing point of view.
- Discounting—where the relevant knowledge is simply ignored.
- Active Disbelief—where the occurrence of the given wild card is asserted to be impossible, due to it contradicting other beliefs held dear (which, in turn, can result from establishment positions that involve disinformation and/or censorship).
- Disinformation—where the relevant knowledge about the wild card has been convincingly camouflaged by propagandistic distortion.
- Taboo—where there is an “Elephant in the Living Room” that will severely undermine your legitimacy as a credible actor if you even talk publicly about the given wild card being credible.
- Censorship—where the relevant knowledge is suppressed by prevailing authorities in power over public policy and/or the mass media.
- Disrepute—where the dubious reputation of the “prophet” prevents a credible hearing.
In the figure I show you how I would rank them in terms of what I’ve seen in my experience working with clients and audiences over the years. How would you rank them? – Andy Hines
Source: Markley, Oliver, 2011. “A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises.” Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78, 1079–1097.
Oliver was always good at shrewdly articulating something. I very much respect his analysis and his insights on things. I learned a lot from him at Clear Lake. Professionally I might rank your list differently because my experience was very different than yours, Andy. I worked for the government for 35 years which is a a “not for profit” organization. A list for trying to work with a “for profit” organization would certainly be different because a company lives and dies by its balance sheet. A private company has to show a positive ROI, a purely government entity does not. A private company has a responsibility to shareholders or a board. So a private company is open to anything that will give them an affordable edge over the competition or a new product line that will sell. That’s why “for profit” private sector entities are better to work with than “not for profit” government. If a private sector entity screws up it goes out of business. If government screws up it just keeps going. Being retired and just looking at the world, scanning the horizon on multiple situations and issues in the Information Space, This is how I would rank my list:
1.Censorship
2.Disinformation
3.Active Disbelief
4.Discounting
5.Taboo
6.Passive Disbelief
7.Dispute
Thank you for your Interest!
Lee Anderson Mottern
San Antonio, TX
Interesting. Makes good sense. Thanks for contributing!
Andy,
Nice list from Oliver! It reminded me of my Seminar Class when Jennifer Jarratt taught it in the 90’s. We studied a list of reasons Why Forecasts Fail. Oliver’s list is similar to that list. Among them was
1. Wishful thinking
2. Premature closure
3. Group think
4. Bias – unconscious
I can’t recall the others,… maybe you do?
Much of this list is about those producing the forecast, where Oliver’s list refers to the recipients of wildcards and unexpected news!
oh, ya, that is a really good one. You inspired to go back and find it. I’ve been thinking a lot on this topic lately, so appreciate the tip!