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We had a nice discussion on the APF list last week that started out on the gig economy and ended up exploring ideas for visions or images of the post-capitalist future. It was suggested that those looking at after capitalism were perhaps hypnotized and failing to recognize that capitalism was simply reinventing itself again. Fair point! A big question from the works I’ve reviewed so far is that many indeed suggest a next phase of capitalism, which I’m capturing as the Horizon Two transition concepts. It was also suggested that the smart money is on these reinvention ideas compared to post-capitalism. Again, fair point. But that raises a question of what futurists ought to be doing.
Is our job to suggest where to put the smart money on the future? In some cases the answer is yes. For many clients, we are indeed helping them to develop a more informed view of the emerging future by crafting plausible alternative futures — so that they can make the necessary course corrections. But we have another job: crafting images of preferred futures! Long-term preferred futures at that. Horizon Three. If we don’t, who will? [Well, science fiction does some of that — and some of it is very, very good]. But I think most futurists would agree that at least part of our job is to open up the possibility space for our clients, the public, and everyone to imagine where we might go (and what we want to avoid).
My answer: I spend more of my time on Horizon 2 and I’d like to shift to more time on Horizon 3.
Indeed, more Horizon 3 work is part of the motivation for the After Capitalism work. We know Polak’s charge – the lack of a positive guiding image is the downfall of a civilization. So we’ve been sifting through concepts via the capitalism/post-capitalism lens for the last few years. Clearly, the question is bigger than just economics, but the “centrality” of capitalism to much of the world’s way of life makes it a fruitful starting point.
The argument about “is capitalism dying” or “when will it die” is an interesting and useful one that needs to be discussed. But that doesn’t mean we should neglect to consider what might come after. Shame on us if it is dying, and we don’t have positive and compelling alternatives to suggest. Andy Hines
Hi Andy,
I believe I spend most of my time on Horizon 3, if not beyond, and why I use a business name of ‘Heretical Foresight’. In my opinion foresight has to be more philosophical. It has to be about asking questions of ourselves and ‘the other’. What is it to be human as individuals and as a collective? What do we really want within our hearts and heads for the future? What is it that we don’t like or want about the present that we want to move away from? What is it that we can achieve together that we can’t alone? Foresight has to be ‘out there’ it can’t remain as a patch and band-aid on perspectives of the present or we will never move from the mess we have. Foresight has to think more expansively, more collectively, more globally. The better images should be apolitical, all encompassing and energise action. They should both recognise unity in diversity and the collective power of a globe of massively creative individuals that can cross pollinate the most amazing new possibilities in every field, every practice and every context imaginable.
Foresight practitioners must become philosophers, artists and musicians or those groupings must perhaps become foresight practitioners. The creatives have no fear of being bold, being abstract, being resonant to something grand and beautiful. Depressive focus on politics or technology, IT, AI, Bitcoin and Blockchain etc….who cares….they’re tools ‘things’ that will come and go they are not what will ever drive the human spirit or provide grand images for all.
Grand questions will drive grand images. What horizons what images will the human heart the human spirit generate that will give focus for the long term future of humanity? What of those images and ideas can then be broken down into lesser images as forward focus for business and governments yet are still part of something much grander, much more valuable and worthy than now?
So where are all the grand ideas and the grand philosophers? Philosophers and philosophy seem to focus rearwards on the history of philosophy or enjoys spruiking or phrasing responses in the words of past philosophers but remain silent in the face of the wicked problems and present difficulties of the world.
Even beyond that where are the grand ideas, the grand principles that gave hope and heart to humanity in clearly difficult times in the past or as guides for grand civilisations of the past. There has to be something like symbols and principles that are held as guides removing the need for endless layers of laws, politics and BS. Positive, uplifting, providing hope, goodwill and love not their opposites as past and some present regimes have imposed.
One of the greatest challenges for foresight, working collaboratively across all fields, should be to work globally to come up with a new guiding principle for the planet as a whole yet remaining a guiding principle for collectives and individuals alike. That is why I would like to see something like a new version of the ancient Egyptian principle of MAAT (wisdom, truth, balance, justice, harmony). The goddess MAAT and her consort god Thoth / Djehuty set the pace set the principles. If the ancient Egyptians could do it, then ‘advanced’ humanity could do so today and aspire to the highest possible for all.
That I see as a grand challenge for foresight. Imaging what that could be. Could our only rules be ‘Love and Goodwill’? Imagine the flow on changes to absolutely everything?
Cheers
Brett
Brett Christopher Martin
Heretical Foresight Group
Melbourne Australia
hello@brettmartin.com.au
Wow, awesome response. I can feel the energy. Keep the fire burning!
Thanks for your lovely post, dear Andy! As I mentioned in the LinkedIn post, our visions of the future that inspire humanity need to originate from the immediate horizons ahead of us. These images need to draw us into the future so intensely that more close goals and strategies emerge from them naturally. I am convinced that only as we stretch ourselves far enough into the future will we become capable to effectively grapple with the more close future.
At the same time we are challenged to speak a language understandable to people around us that can also pull them further into the future. This does not mean we would need to omit the 3rd horizon futures, but rather that we would at times shift our focus closer in time to speak a more current message, whilst we still see the far distant future in our own perspective.
Interestingly, when you read texts of the biblical prophets, you can see these future viewers constantly had a perspective both into the distant past, as well as into the distant future. Yet still they translated their messages into a vision relevant for the context of the people at the time.
Let us have long-term vision both backwards and forward, and connect both of these time-stretching paradigms as best as we can to our present!
Agreed on the need for forward and backward. My sense is that we don’t have the “backward” yet, that is, we don’t have compelling positive images to work toward.