Visions of the future over time

Back in 1995, influential economist Robert Heilbroner was given the opportunity to look at the role of visions in history and the future. [It is very revealing to note only a passing acknowledgement of the foresight field, in which he cites the work of political analyst Max Singer who was a colleague of the futurist Herman Kahn – a six degrees thing]. Anyhow, that niggle aside, it is a delightful book and I enjoyed it!

Heilbroner divides history/human existence into four time periods:

• The distant past, from the beginning of homo sapiens 150,000 years ago to “yesterday,”
• Yesterday, roughly 250 years ago (Note: roughly arrival of the industrial revolution and capitalism).
• Today, it was 1995
• The future

The visions of the distant past, while varied in form, had the common element of saying little about changes in humans material condition, and focused primarily on the rewards or punishments of the next life. The view of the future is one of resignation to one’s fate. As I’ve noted in my research on values, my shorthand for the traditional values prevalent here is “follow the rules.”

The visions of yesterday are characterized by “the rise and flourishing of capitalism.” In this period “the future now enters into human consciousness as a great beckoning prospect…re: improving the human condition…and we begin to look to the human future with confidence.” The vision of the future shifts from the next life to this one. He does make the caveat that this shift is primarily in the affluent Western nations. In values terms here, we have the rise of modern values here – “achieve.”

The transition to today leads to another shift in visions to “a new degree of pessimism. He notes that science begins to supplant religion, which was the central visionary element of the past. We also begin to see “the seismic pressure exerted by the accumulation of capital.” He refers to how Marx acknowledges the tremendous dynamism and growth resulting from capitalism, cautions that it is like “a sorcerer who is no longer able to control the powers of the nether world whom he has called up by his spells.” Put bluntly, he observers that “since its postwar reconstruction boom, capitalism has evidenced serious malfunctions in every nation.” He characterizes the visions as apprehensive, which aligns with the postmodern values “search for meaning.”

Heilbroner’s assumption when he talks about tomorrow — he is writing this in 1995 — is that “it is likely that capitalism will be the principal form of socioeconomic organization during the twenty-first century….because no blueprint exists for a viable successor.” At the same time, he acknowledges that “capitalism will not last forever…its internal dynamics are too powerful.” The tomorrow vision is kinda blah:

• A secure terrestrial base for life (don’t wreck the environment)
• Preserving the human community as a whole against its war-like proclivities (don’t blow it up, you maniacs)
• Respect for human nature if given the cultural and education centrality it demands (be nice to each other).

He admits it’s not much, but asks his critics “if they have anything better.” Hopefully the After Capitalism work will produce something better. – Andy Hines