by Here’s how After Capitalism is using the handy Horizons Framework. It is intended primarily to show the evolution of the concepts over time, and to provide a very rough estimate of timing.
The X-axis is time. (NOTE: Three Horizons does not prescribe timeframes for each horizon.)
The timing depends on the topic. Some topics change quickly (mobile communications) and some slowly (forestry). For After Capitalism, I pegged the current Horizon 1 (H1) system of Neoliberal Capitalism as having perhaps another decade of preeminence – to 2030. Then, the Horizons transition concepts that I’m calling Collaborative Sharing Platforms, which are already in existence to some extent today, become more prevalent. I am suggesting a decade or two for this Horizon Two (H2) transition – from 2030 to 2040/2050. These rough estimates suggest the Horizon Three (H3) is at least 20 or 30 years always. It is important to keep in mind that these are rough ballpark estimates.
The Y-axis is strategic fit, or how well is the horizon fitting with the context. The framework shows how the systems of each horizon shift over time.
- H1, Neoliberal Capitalism, has the highest degree of strategic fit in the present, but is in decline by 2030 and fades away by 2040/2050.
- H2, the Collaborative Sharing Platforms, has some degree of fit in the present, becomes preeminent in 2030, but it declines in the 2040/2050 timeframe.
- H3, the three Transformation Images, have a low degree of fit in the present, pick up steam in H2 and eventually one, or some combination of them, becomes the new system in the 2040-/20505 timeframe.
Again, the years are just estimates! – Andy Hines
Everything goes in Cycles Andy. Yes indeed.
For what it’s worth, I am believe in the development theory of social change…not cycles.