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I often hear complaints about mental models and their resistance to change. Yes, we are trying to influence and change mental models. But we must also recognize that this is a long process.
Mental models should not change easily. It’s a species survival mechanism. We are blasted with so much information that if we changed our core beliefs easily, well, we wouldn’t have any core beliefs.
I think we’d all agree that foresight is a long game. [Just don’t tell the clients!] Seriously, though, it’s simple. By doing our foresight homework, we identify weak signals and potentially disruptive force long before they “hit.” The key is whether we can anticipate and stimulate actions at the appropriate time … which could be tomorrow, next year, a decade, etc. The actions coming from foresight will be a mix across the three horizons. “Do these things now;” “these later;” and “keep an eye on these.”
Make sense? Okay, influencing mental models is something that takes time. It’s a learning process. Sure, we can get the occasional flash of instant insight, but even that is often the result of much advanced work and thinking.
I was recently talking to a group about degrowth. It is challenging growth, which I characterize as a CLA myth-metaphor that is deeply, firmly, and fundamentally entrenched in most people’s mental models. Views on growth are not going to change soon or easily. It doesn’t mean we give up, but that we recognize the challenge we are signing up for in talking on degrowth. And we should choose these types of challenges wisely. We only have time for so many mental model shifts in our career!
But when we see a process of mental model unfolding … what a thing of beauty. I’m seeing if slowly unfold now with my After Capitalism work. I can see that just beginning with degrowth, as people question, wonder, and challenge their thinking … even if just briefly. Sure, they will snap back most of the time. But the door is ajar, and we come back again and try to open it a little more. – Andy Hines
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