by There is no proof in the futures business! [This includes the sexy “future-proofing” concept making the rounds – not gonna fly!]. We cannot prove that our scenarios are accurate or correct – or that the issues we identified are the right ones. This presents some challenges to folks new to the future, They are often hungry for evidence and typically numbers to back up the scenarios or issues. I can see the looks of consternation as they grapple with how to make a case with bosses who are g
oing to demand the proof.
No, we can’t offer proof, but we can offer a futures chain-of-custody. As the funnel diagram shows, what comes out depends on what goes in. We can trace the outputs, in this case issues, all the way back to the initial scan hits and inputs.
Starting from the top. We identify scan hits and “inputs” (trends, issues, plans, and projections) that are synthesized into a set of drivers. The drivers are the building blocks for a set of scenarios. The implications are akin to “micro” impacts on the client for each scenario. Finally we synthesize the implications or micro-impacts into a set of issues or macro impacts. It’s all connected.
Working up from the bottom. An issue derives from implications that derive from a scenario (or scenarios), that come from a set of drivers, which come from a set of inputs (trends, issues, etc.) and scan hits. We can actually trace the full pathway. It’s not proof, but it shows that we are not just making things up! We have the chain of custody!
Very useful! Thank you.
thanks for taking the time to say that — I appreciate it!