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These are a few of my favorite things (humming Sound of Music). I have been doing all three a lot lately, and talking about them to others. We do these things a lot as futurists. But as I reflect on how I came to do them, or how I teach others about them, I find myself peering into a black box. This means we have an opportunity to open the box! I used to describe the scanning process as a black box, which set me (and others) to the task of bring some process light to it.
The Funnel graphic provides some context. Scanning hits are the most fundamental “raw ingredients” of futures. Since 300+ scanning hits are challenging to work with, we synthesize them into a smaller numbers of trends (and other inputs, but let’s save that conversation.) But how are those trends coming together (patterns) to drive the future? We think of drivers as clusters of trends, forming a pattern, and synthesize the story. And then we cluster drivers, look for patterns, and synthesize the stories as scenarios. Are you seeing a pattern here?
So the question I’m left with is “how can I/we improve our instruction on building/improving/mastering these three skills? I have a few vague thoughts, but let’s hear from the readers! — Andy Hines
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