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I have spent more than 35 years as a professional futurist. I have given a lot of talks. I have listened to a lot of talks. Let me offer a suggestion on another way to listen to talks and what might you look for. And what it means for your practice.
Most futurists will describe what is going on in the present more or less accurately. And then of course describe their sense of the future. The better ones will offer their advice on how to approach it.
We’ll call the Builders those who try to figure out a way to honor the work of others that is happening and has been done. They seek to leverage the advancements that have been made and take that work into new areas. I remember listening to a talk from Kees Van Der Heijden at a Global Business Network master class where he talked about scaffolding as making the connection between now and what went before. It really stuck with me [so, now I’ve given away which camp I’m in … which is obvious to my After Capitalism readers].
We’ll call the Separators those who try to figure out a way to use what is happening to benefit their practice by way of being a contrarian. If everyone is talking about, say UBI, then they scoff at that, and instead, they introduce a “new” reframing of an existing idea. The reframing often involves coining a new term or phrase. It is usually indeed smart and the fact that the Separator is now seeing this shift is a clue that the future is indeed moving – this is valuable info!
If you want to be able to tell the difference, look at the history. A Builder is typically characterized by a consistency of approach. You will see the ideas evolving but the overall themes are consistent. A Separator is marked by significant and prominently announced shifts that make the audience feel like “Oh gosh, I need to catch up.” The shifts may even contradict previous work that at the time were announced just as prominently. These shifts are made when it is clear there is market interest, not early. Again, useful to know!
Another example from the Global Business Network. I absolutely loved being a paying subscriber to the network. Back when I was trying to build the Association of Professional Futurists, GBN was wildly popular and influential. Getting them to participate in APF would have been a huge help to our nascent group. However, I was told, we are “scenarists” not futurists and they never joined. Most (not all) made an effort to not identify as futurists, and were very careful to distinguish themselves. This is a Separator approach. We are not them. Come to us because we are different.
Two points: if you’re consuming information, become aware of which type you are getting. The Builder will invite you to participate in building the idea whereas a Separator will invite you to join them. Both approaches have something to offer. Yes, I prefer the Builder approach, but I absolutely can and do learn from Separators. If you are developing your own practice, who do you want to be? My observation is that the Builder Camp is likely to be more anonymous, but being a Separator is no easy task …. lots try, few succeed. What legacy do you want to leave? – Andy Hines
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