Cavalier about collapse? Consider X-events

Our preliminary research at Houston Foresight into how domains evolve over the Three Horizons suggests collapse is not the typical route to transformation; rather a gradual iteration of new equilibria appears to be more common. Yet it is almost conventional wisdom that crisis is the key enabler of transformational change. Perhaps it is our understanding of collapse that is misinformed? So I decided to take a look at some of the collapse literature and see what might be learned as we start to dig into paths to After Capitalism.

Let’s start with John Casti’s X-Events written a little over a decade ago. He takes the interesting view that complexity mismatches are the source of x-events (extreme events) that have the potential to collapse civilization. X-events fall outside of conventional science, which is mostly about the study of repeatable phenomena. They defy probability theory and statistics. The examples he analyzes in the book include:

• Widespread Failure of the Internet
• Breakdown of the Global Food-Supply System
• Electromagnetic Pulse Destroys all Electronics
• The Collapse of Globalization
• Destruction of the Earth rhrough the Creation of Exotic Particles
• Destabilization of the Nuclear Landscape
• Drying Up of World Oil Supplies
• A Global Pandemic
• Failure of the Electric Power Grid and Clean Water Supply
• Intelligent Robots Overthrow Humanity
• Global Deflation and the Collapse of World Financial Markets

Note that a global pandemic appeared in this 2011 list. Note that intelligent robots, which has so many alarmed today, is on the list. Note global deflation is on the list, which we captured as stagnation in After Capitalism. 

He suggests that the root of the problem is the increasing levels of complexity needed to preserve the critical infrastructures of modern life. This complexity makes us vulnerable to an dramatic downsizing in our way of life. In simple terms, an X-event “corrects” a complexity mismatch between two ( or more ) systems. For example, our coffeemakers have gotten so sophisticated that we can no longer maintain them. If something goes wrong with the chip, the supply of water, the high-pressure pump, etc., we’re powerless to fix it. A complexity overload in our cars is a much bigger problem. And when one occurs in an infrastructure, things really start getting serious.

The argument is that these mismatches are growing in number and severity. The complex infrastructures we rely on — transportation, communication, food and water supply, electrical power — are extremely fragile.  

Essentially when the complexity level or the mismatch becomes greater than the systems can bear, an X-event is likely on the way to restore balance. Casti suggests the best solution to avoiding X-events is to simplify the system that’s too complex rather than complexify the simpler system. The brute-force solution is to simply reduce the complexity of society by moving back to an earlier style of life. The more realistic alternative is to start loosening up the tightly bound interconnections and super-efficient systems, and to build in resiliency and redundancy.

It won’t be easy. Casti observes that “it’s damnably tricky to take effective action in the face of short-term thinking on the part of powerful forces whose interests reside in preserving the status quo.” We futurists certainly agree. I think Casti gives us a powerful conceptual guide for the types of systems we build and solutions we pursue on the road to After Capitalism.  – Andy Hines.