Technology and After Capitalism

NOTE:  Longer-than-typical post as I try to briefly summarize the impact of accelerating technology change on After Capitalism. Suggestions/comments most welcome!

Proponents of technology as the key driver of the future have a lot of ammunition. A cursory scan of potential technology breakthroughs can leave one’s head spinning. Alas, translating tech breakthrough into socially acceptable and commercially viable products or services is a tricky business. Many promising ideas never make across the technology chasm from early adopters to the mainstream (Moore 1991) or it takes much longer than initially thought (Hines 2020a). I also keep in mind the arguments of the Limits to Growth authors, who have repeatedly addressed and rejected the suggestion that technology will be the magic bullet that solves the growth challenge. Technology can help for sure, but “technology market responses are themselves delayed and imperfect. They take time, they demand capital, they require materials and energy flow… Even with the most effective technologies and the greatest economic resilience…if those are the only changes, the model tends to generate scenarios of collapse” (Hines 2005).

Kurzweil’s (2005) Law of Accelerating Returns points out that technological change is exponential, though most people think of it as linear and thus underestimate the long-term gains in capabilities. The capabilities could range from essentially solve many of the world’s pressing problems, to being able to upload our consciousness to computers, and to essentially to reinventing the human species itself. Kurzweil projects a point called the singularity in which life is so radically altered that it is impossible to anticipate what lies beyond the singularity. He and colleague Peter Diamandis (2009) founded the Singularity Institute to study this alternative future. Regardless of whether one believes in the singularity outcome, accelerating technological capabilities are clearly are with us. Exponential growth of most aspects of computing, extraordinarily large amounts of digitized information, and recombinant innovation (Brynjolfsson and Macafee 2016).

Digital transformation

When we apply the law of accelerating returns to a suite of digital transformation technologies – e.g., I/T, AI, ER (extended realty), IoT, Big Data, Predictive Analytics — extraordinary things happen. While the capabilities of the individual technologies are fascinating by themselves, they are increasingly being integrated together. For instance, The Internet of Things suggests sensors in everything th essentially makes every device smart and connected. This creates immense of amounts of Big Data to be processed and analyzed. Relating to our After Capitalism topic, Mayer-Schonberger and Ramge (2018) suggest that combining huge volumes of data with machine learning and algorithms to create more effective markets that identify the best possible transaction partners in the market for consumers. The application of big data gets even more interesting as predictive analytics capabilities come on board. Siegel (2013) summarizes predictive analytics as “technology that learns from experience (data) to predict future behavior of individuals in order to drive better decisions.”

In some case, the digital transformation technologies automates exist tasks or jobs and replaces people. Self-driving vehicles, for instance, are expected to replace truck drivers and other professional drivers. In other applications, the digital technologies complement and enhance what people can do.  With extended reality tools, for instance, human capabilities are extended by assistance from augment and virtual reality.

AI is perhaps the most influential of the suite of digital technologies. Bostrom (2014) provides a handy guide for categorizing AI in three levels:

• 1st, task intelligence, in which AI outperforms people in a single task. We are currently here.
• 2nd, general intelligence, in which AI is as intelligent as people in a wide range of tasks. This may be decades away….or closer.
• 3rd, superintelligence, in which AI is orders of magnitude more intelligent than people across-the-board

There is wide disagreement among experts if or when AI surpasses human intelligence. There does seem to be some consensus there advances will take a few decades ranging to a 100 years. There is some disagreement on whether this will be for good, with a small group of Luddites and digital utopians flanking a mainstream view of generally beneficial (Tegmark 2018).

Emerging wave: bio nano robo & augmentation

While I/T is at the center of Kurzweil’s (2005) Singularity, he point out that it is intertwined with bio, nano, and robo technologies leading to a future in which the distinction between humans and technology essentially disappears. I/T and bio/nano/robo can repair and eventually enhance human performance (for those who can afford it), and some believe along with Kurzweill, including Harari’s (2017a) Homo Deus will eventually create a new species.

Even if we don’t go as far as a new species, an increasing role for human augmentation seems very likely. It could take a variety of paths to dramatically increase human capabilities using biological and physical means such as advanced pharmaceuticals, CRISPR for genetic manipulation, smart prosthetics, implants, and wearables.

Other techs: Additive manufacturing, blockchain, energy, space, and transportation

Whole books are written on each “other,” so the quick mention here is as relates primarily to why it’s of interest to After Capitalism.

• Additive manufacturing: 3D, 4D, and nano-scale “bottom-up” manufacturing approaches that allow for decentralized on-demand fabrication. The ability to “go local” has interesting economic implications – decentralizing.
• Blockchain: a shared, distributed ledger that facilitates recording transactions and tracking assets in a network. Virtually anything of value can be tracked and traded on a blockchain network, reducing risk and cutting costs for all involved. Block-chain based smart contracts combined with AI and automated monitoring using self-adjusting data-driven incentives could be applied widely to sustainable resource management, transportation congestion, crime detection, and microfinance (Dao 2017). The “decentralizing” aspect is particularly intriguing here as well.
• Renewable energy: Several of the AC works talked about the great potential for a renewable energy revolution. Bastani (2019) for instance, noted that in principle, solar is more than capable of meeting the world’s expanding energy needs. He adds that it is unparalleled in the history of energy use to have a source keep getting cheaper and cheaper and cheaper year on year not by single – digit , but by double – digit gains. This connects back to Kurzweils point about Accelerating Returns and exponential growth, and he indeed suggested in 2016 that solar would be the dominant energy source in a dozen years (Morris 2016).
• Transportation: Advances point to the increasing speed and perhaps most impactful of all is the pervasiveness of rapid delivery. Combined with advances in virtual technology, it enables a shifting sense of place. When should we get together in person and when is virtual okay? Should we go to the store, or have it delivered?
• Space: There could be a boost from space. Bastani (2019) suggests asteroid mining is poised to become the fastest-growing industry in history. He cites the example of the large asteroid 16 Psyche located in the belt between Mars and Jupiter. It is composed of iron, nickel and rarer metals such as copper, gold and platinum, its iron content alone could be worth $10,000 quadrillion. He goes on to say that one estimate of the mineral wealth of NEAs (near Earth asteroids) if equally divided among every person on Earth, would add up to more than $inef100 billion each.

What’s it mean for After Capitalism

While technology acceleration is at the core of capitalism today, advocates of After Capitalism, see the potential of accelerating technology for creating a new economic order. Mason (2015) who contributes to the Non-Workers Paradise image, points out that:

• Infotech has reduced the need for work
• Information goods are corroding the market’s ability to form prices correctly
• The spontaneous rise of collaborative product: goods services and organization that no longer respond to dictates of the market, e.g., Wikipedia

One might say the key question is the motivation behind the application of the accelerating technology is key. So, while on the one hand technology acceleration is currently driving the capitalist regime, on the other, it may drive it so well, that the capitalist regime is no longer needed. Capitalism is based on the assumption of a scarcity of resources. Technology acceleration, however, could “solve” that scarcity issue and enable an abundance of resources that makes capitalism obsolete. For instance, Smart (2015) suggests that the rate of technological change has been accelerating throughout history and will continue to do so, thus putting us on the cusp of super-exponential acceleration of infotech as well as nanotech. Indeed, several of the Tech-Led Abundance images rely on this driver of technology acceleration.

References
Bastani, Aaron. 2019. Fully Automated Luxury Communism. London: Verso.
Bostrom, Nick. 2014. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford, UK: Oxford U Press.
Brynjolfsson, Erik and Andrew Macafee. 2016. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. NY: W.W. Norton & Company. Kindle Edition.
Dao, David. 2017. “AI Smart Contracts: The Age of A.I. Powered Incentives.” Medium.com, November 23, 2017. https://medium.com/@daviddao/predictive-smart-contracts-dc15b9986d8c
Diamandis, Peter. 2012. Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think. NY: Simon & Schuster.
Harari, Yuval Noah. 2017. Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. Kindle Edition. NY: Harper.
Hines, Andy. 2005. “Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update.” Foresight, 7(4), 51-53.
Hines, Andy. 2020b. “Change Is Slower than We Think.” Hinesight, September 1 2020, https://www.andyhinesight.com/futurehype/change-is-slower-than-we-think/
Kurzweil, Ray. 2005. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. NY: The Viking Press.
Mason, Paul. 2015. Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future. NY: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.
Mayer-Schonberger, Viktor and Thomas Ramge. 2018. Reinventing Capitalism in the Age of Big Data. NY: Basic Books. Kindle Edition.
Moore, Geoffrey. 1991. Crossing the Chasm. NY: Harper Business Essentials.
Morris, Davd. 2016. “Ray Kurzweil: Here’s Why Solar Will Dominate Energy within 12 Years.” Fortune, April 27, 2016.
Siegel, Eric. 2013. Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
Smart, John M. 2015. The Foresight Guide: Predicting, Creating, and Leading in the 21st Century, Foresight University, https://www.foresightguide.com/
Tegmark, Max. 2018. Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. NY: Vintage