Rules of Foresight, Part 1

Note: I’m thinking of an occasional series of some key aspects of foresight, which I can in return relate to the future of After Capitalism.

Let’s start with one of my favorites. It goes way back to my early days as a budding futurist when I repeatedly heard “ we love your work, but we don’t know what to do with it.” This was but one of the many ways that resistance to change in particular and foresight in general manifests itself. I wondered why there was this alleged resistance to change inside client organizations, so I went inside myself for nearly a decade, first with Kellogg’s and then Dow Chemical. I quickly learned the resistance was real.

A few decades later, and here’s where I net out.

The basic orientation of humans to change is that most would rather not. Simple as that. No judgement, no comment, just a basic fact. Accept it. Machiavelli observed it way back in 1532 in The Prince: There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain of success than to take a lead in the introduction of a new order things; because innovation has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions and lukewarm defenders in those who may do under the new.

Granted, this natural resistance to change might surprise futurists, since we are generally enthusiastic about change. But as most of us know by now, we are not normal.

Rule 1A makes it clear we will not escape resistance … or that if we do, we probably aren’t doing our job. So, it’s natural, and it’s an indicator that we’re doing our job. Best we accept it, it seems.

For those on the road to After Capitalism, we must expect resistance. A lot of resistance. Large-scale and long-term resistance. We are proposing change to the prevailing paradigm – change at the very deepest level. We need to make our peace with resistance right now.  

My advice to my students is that it may be helpful to see aside some time to whine, cry, drink, gripe, shout or whatever it takes to get it out of your system. And then accept that all of work must deal with this central fact. We have to factor in resistance and be smart about how we will deal with it. We at Houston Foresight are doing a course this summer on “Activating the Future” confronts resistance as part of implementation. Take heart, there are things we can do! – Andy Hines