postmodern | Hinesight

Modern Values Bulldozing to the Future

June 17, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

The full spectrum of values seemed to be in play in China in reading the Sunday New York Times. The eye-popping story was the announcement that the government is planning to move 250 million people into cities. The bulldozers are coming to clear the road for progress.

For some time now, the Chinese government has been attempting to expand growth beyond the immense and fast-growing coastal cities. I actually sat in on a pitch with a client in which government officials painted a rosy picture of how a then-barren inland area they were hoping my client would build a new plant on, would eventually become a boom town.

Apparently the carrott approach of enticing development outside the coast isn’t working fast enough, so out comes the stick – the bulldozers — on 250 million rural residents. It seems the thinking is that if businesses do not want to build in front of the market, well, then they’ll go ahead and bring the market first.

The values in play here are a mix. Certainly the dominant perspective is one of modern values, of achievement and growth with scan attention to the social consequences. Marketplace rules prevail here. But there is also a hint of the old traditional values, where authority reigns supreme. It is perhaps a bit surprising that something like moving a quarter of a billion people can simply be ordered by the government. [Imagine trying to move, say a dozen people, here in the US]

Lest we conclude that the values in play stop here. The very same day a story that China’s cabinet has adopted 10 measures to improve air quality in major cities. How postmodern of them! The pressure within the existing megacities is showing a postmodern influence, while the move of rural Chinese to cities shows a traditional influence, but all in all, we see a clear modern influence – growth as the key driver of the Chinese future. As we watch China’s development, we’ll look for clues as to when the postmodern pull begins to overcome the traditional push, recognizing that modernization still has a long way to go. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight, Values Tagged With: China, future, modern, postmodern, traditional, values

Sharing as another indicator of consuming less

March 17, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Another post on the trend to consuming less — I sense a trend here. I came across an excellent piece on the topic by Emily Badger: Share Everything: Why the Way We Consume Has Changed Forever. It illustrates many of the themes highlighted in ConsumerShift. Perhaps foremost is that it indicates a changing relationship between consumers and consumption. At its simplest, people are questioning whether they really need to own something or can they just access it when they need it. In values terms, the modern values holder wants to possess goods to demonstrate their belonging and status. The postmoderns, and especially the integrals, are less concerned with their status – having felt they have achieved it, and thus less concerned with collecting goods and possessions. Note, I’m saying “less” concerned, not unconcerned. So the postmoderns and integrals look at sharing as an interesting option – do I really need that? Do I need to have my music physically on my device, or am I willing to pay for a subscription and have it streamed? Perhaps the prototype of sharing is ZipCar, built on the idea in the urban areas, where parking is scarce and expensive, possession is actually a pain!

The cycle aspect, for the more cynical among us, suggests we are simply returning to our roots, and that this is much ado about nothing. Even in the present, Badger notes that “we’re used to the notion of sharing libraries, public parks, and train cars.” In my work with values, almost every time I give a talk, someone suggests that postmodern/integral values are simply new versions of traditional values. Well, okay, I can see that, but the key factor is the context. Values are intimately linked to context, or life conditions to use Spiral Dynamics language. It doesn’t really work to suggest that what’s happening in 2013 urban areas is a return to medieval farming community values (or whatever the example is).

Bumping the discussion to a higher level, futurists and others have been playing with notions of what the “next” economy might look like. Descriptions such as the open-source economy, gift economy, relationship economy, attention economy, etc. At our Master’s program last Spring, we had a day-long meeting on “After Capitalism” that was inspired by student interest. Sharing, I suspect, is at the heart of what’s next. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumers, consumption, emily badger, integral, modern, postmodern, sharing, spiral dynamics, values, zipcar

Values shift to consuming less

March 11, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

A key theme of ConsumerShift is that the emergence of postmodern and integral values would lead to less emphasis on material goods consumption. It is perhaps best captured by the theme of “enoughness,” in which people feel their lives are getting out of control, and they want to take back that control and set limits. If you’re wondering what this looks like in “real life,” take a look at this New York Times piece on “Living with Less. A Lot Less.”

It tells the story of an entrepreneur who strikes it rich and finds himself being more or less sucked into a consumptive lifestyle. Interestingly, the story shows how so much of our consumption is based on an expectation that it is appropriate to where one is in their journey, e.g., strike it rich = consume as one with money and status “should” consume.

Our entrepreneur is vaguely discomforted by this slide into high consumption and it takes a romantic relationship to snap him out of it, and rethink his priorities. In ConsumerShift, it’s noted how it often takes some sort of crisis or change in life conditions to provoke a rethinking. In the case here, the author downsizes his lifestyle and turns his entrepreneurial efforts to causes such as treehugger.com. Many of you will recognize this “make a difference” turn and not he’s shift into Integral values. A really nice illustration of some of the key ideas we’ve been talking about here! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumption, enoughness, integral, postmodern, values

Does lobbying have a future?

January 9, 2013 by Andy Hines 1 Comment

Warning: speculative thought piece ahead. In a workshop a while back, in the course of the discussion, I heard myself declare: “if you’re lobbying, it’s too late.” The essence of the story is that I was working with a leadership team to explore potential responses to strategic issues we had identified. I was struck by the appearance – and re-appearance – of the potential response that “we can lobby that” or something along those lines. I would not describe myself as particularly against lobbying – I have no dog in that fight, but if you asked me, I’d say it’s probably something I’d like to see less of. But for many clients, including this one, they often are not involved enough in shaping policy issues that affect them. So getting more involved is generally a good thing — and is at least related to lobbying. So, just to make clear I’m not a knee-jerk anti-lobbyist/anti-gov’t/anti-Washington type of person.

But my intuition was that something felt “wrong,” during that discussion and I’ve learned to pay attention to my intuitions that arise during these workshops. Even if I eventually dismiss them, I at least listen first.

As we’re used to in this blog, we often turn to the values work in ConsumerShift for an explanation. What caused me to blurt out “if you’re lobbying, it’s too late.” (A rather classic case of speaking first and thinking later). Thinking of what we’ve learned from the emergence of postmodern and integral values, lobbying, in general, seems out of synch with them. If we look at lobbying in relation to the five core changes identified in ConsumerShift.:

Authenticity. People are tired of being managed and manipulated and hunger for the straight story, warts and all. Lobbying is seen as a high art form of “spin-doctoring.”
Connection. People want to be more involved with those they live and do business with. Lobbying is perceived as a behind-closed doors activity.
Anticonsumerism. A disenchantment with consumerism has been gaining momentum. The rapid pace of modern life has taken its toll on lifestyles and relationships. Lobbying is perceived as being all about money.
Self-expression. People want to express their views, their values, their purpose, and their creativity. Lobbying may be seen as serving the interests of the corporation rather than “the people.”
Enoughness. People feel their lives are getting out of control, and they want to take back that control and set limits. Lobbying may be perceived as being an example of politics and influence-peddling run amok

The essence of the problem I intuited is that it seemed, in this case at least, to suggest that lobbying could be employed when the “case” with the public had been lost, so let’s turn to the lobbyists for help. Thus, it’s “too late.”

The perception of lobbying may be worse than the reality. My sense, now with the benefit of reflection, is that it is out of step with emerging values shifts, and for organizations who see it as their salvation or at least a key strategic option, it is worth some consideration as to how, or whether, it fits in the tool kit.

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: Consumershift, integral, lobbying, postmodern, values

The role of values in interpreting values

December 6, 2012 by Andy Hines 1 Comment

Came across an interesting example of how two analysts/organizations looking at the same data can interpret it quite differently. As we’ve discussed in this blog and in ConsumerShift, one’s values/worldview influences their interpretation of events and data. A bit of irony in this case is the influence of values involves a case of interpreting a study of values. The Washington DC local affiliate of CBS reported: Study: American ‘Values’ More European Since First Obama Term. It opens with: “Although a transatlantic cultural gap still exists on certain issues, many Americans have started to think more similarly to Europeans since the beginning of President Obama’s first term.” As I read the piece, I felt like it was aligned with a key message of ConsumerShift that that the US is becoming more postmodern, and since Europe, particularly Northern Europe, is more postmodern than the US, it follows that US will look more like [Northern] Europe.

I figured I’d check the key source, Pew, and look at the data myself. The title of the story on the Pew site it was linked to was: “Anti-Americanism Down in Europe, but a Values Gap Persists.” Hmm, that seems a little different? The story notes: “…despite Obama’s re-election at home and continued popularity in Europe, his presidency has not closed the long-running transatlantic values gap. Instead, on issues such as the use of military force, religion, and individualism, Americans and Europeans continue to disagree.”‘

Okay, so which is it — are we getting closer or still far apart? Reading a bit more closely, it does seem to suggest that a gap persists, but there is some movement towards greater alignment. The interesting point to me was how the the two stories focused on different pieces of data that generated different headlines and emphasis. It reminds us to be ever-alert for the influence of values on interpretations, even when studying values themselves! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Future Hype, Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, europe, Pew Center, postmodern, values

Values and football

October 26, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I am a big New England Patriots football fan (US football, not soccer). I grew up outside of Boston and have maintained ties to the local sports teams wherever I have lived. Football is the quintessential modern sport where it’s all about winning the big prize, the Super Bowl, with over 100 million viewers. The politically correct way that the coaches and athletes speak about football is to focus on how their team is going to win – any deviation from that script often results in a firestorm.

A little context. Last weekend the Patriots lost a lead but then came back to win in overtime. It was perhaps symbolic of the season so far, in which the Patriots were big favorites and almost lost – arguably the team is not playing as well as was forecast. The Patriots have been right at the top of the league for more than a decade ago, and just missed another title in last year’s Super Bowl. This year’s team is a “mortal” 4 wins and 3 losses.

I follow the local media coverage and participate in some of the online fan forums where we can talk about the teams and games. I have noticed a seemingly “over-the-top” negativity about the team. To the point of downright hostility. Fans are angry that the team seems to be under-performing and are questioning not only the abilities but the character of the coaches and players. Some of this always goes on, but it seems more intense than ever.

After last week’s game, star quarterback Tom Brady was quoted as saying: “Maybe we just spoiled some people in the meantime, cause it’s hard to win man, it’s hard to win.” Well, you can imagine that this was like kicking the hornet’s nest. Brady, as a star player, is mostly beloved, but even he is under scrutiny by many. His quote provided ammunition to his detractors that “his head is no longer in the game” or “he no longer cares about winning” and so on and so forth. He was politically incorrect in suggest that the other teams are pretty good, and the other guys are trying pretty hard (the audacity!).

It caused me reflect a bit on Brady’s evolution (from a fan perspective). Earlier in his career, I would say in his strong “modern values” phase, he was lauded as being the “first one into practice and last one out” and working extra hard in the off-season. He would often be seen on the sidelines “fired up” and emotional, perhaps yelling at teammates to get them going or throwing his helmet. He was 100% committed to football – there was nothing else in his life that mattered. A perfect profile of “modern” values centered on achievement (see ConsumerShift)

And he and the team enjoyed great success. As he matured his range of interests expanded and while his interest in football was at the top of the list, he got married and had a child and then re-married to the supermodel Giselle. In his press conferences, you could hear someone taking a more balanced view on life. I think his quote about the maybe spoiling the fans is completely accurate and fair and that it is equally fair to note that it is difficult to win (only 3 teams in his conference have winning records). And on the sidelines, we see less of the “maniacal” fire. But still an extremely high level of performance.

I would say that Brady has moved out of “modern” values as his primary orientation. Does that mean he does not care? Not at all. As we move out of a values phase, we don’t lose our ability to access it. A postmodern or integral person can tap their “modern” when the life conditions (a football game) are there. They just won’t stay there, and in the press conference after the game, out comes the postmodern/integral — to the horror of the modern fans.

I think of the contrast in how we teach kids sports today. In Little League baseball, the modern parents and coaches get hyper-competitive and obsessive about their kids winning these games. The postmodern parents focus on participation and are behind the schemes to get everyone a trophy just for playing. The Integral perspective would see sports as an opportunity for one to “test their mettle,” but with an appreciation for “the other team” and an enjoyment of the process (the game) and not overly fixated on who wins or loses and see it as a enjoyable and an opportunity for learning.

I don’t expect the modern context of sports to change anytime soon. I do expect the postmodern phase to be rather quick. The Integral phase, in balancing individual and group needs, strikes me as “workable.” I can imagine a fan base that appreciates the beauty of the contest, the effort of the players, and has a perspective that “life goes on” if we lose. But maybe that is a distant forecast? Andy Hines.

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: football, integral, modern, new england patriots, postmodern, tom brady, values

Are American values universal?

October 11, 2012 by Andy Hines 3 Comments

I came across a blog post by commenting on Congressman Paul Ryan saying that Preventing Gay Marriage Part of America’s ‘Universal Human Values’. The politics of the particular issue aside, a question of interest for us is whether there is such a thing as universal American values? Or for that matter “American values?”

ConsumerShift found global patterns in changing values that we might say are “universal.” I hesitate to use that term as it suggests an inevitability or certainty that is probably not worth debating. Are there global patterns? Yes. Are they universal/inevitable? Maybe.

On to American values. The global patterns in values operate at a structural level, interacting with and accompanied by economic and political changes. America as a developed and affluent society shares patterns in values common among other affluent developed nations across the globe. ConsumerShift observed that these nations are trending toward postmodern and integral values. The leading edge of these changes, by the way, is found in Northern Europe, not the US. A key point that I make in the book is that while countries share the same structural patterns in values, individual cultures interpret them differently. Thus, self-expression, a postmodern value, is interpreted differently in the US, European countries, or Japan, for instance. So there are unique cultural interpretations of values, but not different values per se.

It would be fair to say that there are unique mixes of values. Not all affluent countries share the exact same distribution of values. The US, for instance, shows far more traditional values than the Northern European countries. There is a distinctive US mix.

So, we can say that there is a US interpretation and mix of values, not distinctive US values, and they are not universal. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: American values, consumer understanding, Consumershift, integral, postmodern, values

New Values Types Summary Graphic

September 22, 2012 by Andy Hines 2 Comments

Could no longer avoid the Saturday morning to-do list item: “create summary graphic of values types described in ConsumerShift.” So here it is. I thought readers of this blog might find it useful. I’d welcome feedback — please be kind, design has never been my strong suit. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, integral, modern, postmodern, traditional, values, values types

Zero Energy House: A Soft Path Indicator?

September 17, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

The New York Times ran an interesting piece Zero Energy Construction Crosses the Ocean on “passive house,” or “zero-energy house” concept that is coming to the US from Europe (no surprise there). According to the Passivhaus Institut, these houses “maintain a comfortable interior climate without active heating and cooling systems….achieved through a system of interior and exterior air exchange, an airtight building envelope and energy-saving appliances, among other things. Any additional energy needs can be generated by renewable sources……[and] uses less than a quarter of the energy of a traditionally powered home. There are about 32,000 passive houses worldwide, most of them in Austria and Germany.”

An interesting concept for sure! One might wonder about meeting those “additional energy needs” from renewables, but there are enough small-scale examples of using renewables in the US such that it shouldn’t be insurmountable. But what about comfort, one might ask? These homes won’t be for all, especially in the beginning — the postmoderns and integrals (from ConsumerShift) will likely be the drivers, as they’ll take on the “sacrifice” of what might be less comfort and potentially greater upfront investment before cost savings are realized.

This development speaks to the Soft Path scenario, one of my basic archetype scenarios for the future. It may be too small scale at this point to ring the celebration bell for the Soft Path, but it represents practical progress toward what is a fundamental component of the Soft Path. We have become accustomed to climate control — an active approach that tailors climate to our needs — and this concepts suggests a perhaps-needed re-balancing toward a passive approach in which we tailor our needs to the climate…..Andy Hines

Filed Under: Forecasting, Foresight, Values Tagged With: Consumershift, integral, passive energy house, Passivhaus Institut, postmodern, soft path, zero energy house

Are postmodern values enough?

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

In my file of “interesting ideas” I had stashed a nice blog post called “free your mind” from the YES website – a quite refreshing site in its positive-ness. Sometimes we can get all wrapped up in problem-space, well just click over there for re-balancing.

The piece talked about the emergence of an “eco-mind, eco-mind”—looking at the world through the lens of ecology, which Consumershift readers might recognize as fitting with our notion of postmodern values with a smattering of Integral. The author, Frances Moore Lappe, suggests six traits to foster: (1) Cooperation (2) Empathy (3) Fairness (4) Efficacy (5) Meaning (6) Imagination, Creativity, and Attraction to Change. All good stuff!

Many futurists, analysts, citizens – lots of us – are concerned about the long-term prospects for humanity. I briefly reviewed an excellent account of the situation from fellow futurist Richard Slaughter, which he terms “The Biggest Wakeup Call in History.” If you’re a reader of ConsumerShift, or perhaps Spiral Dynamics or an Integral fan (I’m all three), an important question is whether the values and worldviews shifts we see emerging will emerge and spread to some sort of critical mass “in time,” that is before some sort of serious crisis happens, what some have called a global emergency. The Spiral folks raised the interesting notion of “2^nd tier consciousness” (that I incorporated in ConsumerShift), which essentially suggests that what I’m calling Integral values represent a different approach to consciousness. Whereas previous values and worldviews each felt their way was the best way, and that we should all be that way, 2^ndtier thinking says there is no single right way, and embraces the notion that that the appropriate values match the context (aka “life conditions). Many of us are hopeful that this significant shift, which gets us away from the damaging “who is right” conversation, can enable us to deal with the big issues ahead…and with us in the present. The rub is that the Spiral folks estimated the Integral worldview at just 1-2% of the population. And ConsumerShift showed that values changes take a long time, on the scale of generations. It may be possible to speed that up, but it’s clearly a big challenge. But challenges are what makes life interesting! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, integral, postmodern, sustainability, values

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