modern | Hinesight

Modern Values Bulldozing to the Future

June 17, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

The full spectrum of values seemed to be in play in China in reading the Sunday New York Times. The eye-popping story was the announcement that the government is planning to move 250 million people into cities. The bulldozers are coming to clear the road for progress.

For some time now, the Chinese government has been attempting to expand growth beyond the immense and fast-growing coastal cities. I actually sat in on a pitch with a client in which government officials painted a rosy picture of how a then-barren inland area they were hoping my client would build a new plant on, would eventually become a boom town.

Apparently the carrott approach of enticing development outside the coast isn’t working fast enough, so out comes the stick – the bulldozers — on 250 million rural residents. It seems the thinking is that if businesses do not want to build in front of the market, well, then they’ll go ahead and bring the market first.

The values in play here are a mix. Certainly the dominant perspective is one of modern values, of achievement and growth with scan attention to the social consequences. Marketplace rules prevail here. But there is also a hint of the old traditional values, where authority reigns supreme. It is perhaps a bit surprising that something like moving a quarter of a billion people can simply be ordered by the government. [Imagine trying to move, say a dozen people, here in the US]

Lest we conclude that the values in play stop here. The very same day a story that China’s cabinet has adopted 10 measures to improve air quality in major cities. How postmodern of them! The pressure within the existing megacities is showing a postmodern influence, while the move of rural Chinese to cities shows a traditional influence, but all in all, we see a clear modern influence – growth as the key driver of the Chinese future. As we watch China’s development, we’ll look for clues as to when the postmodern pull begins to overcome the traditional push, recognizing that modernization still has a long way to go. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight, Values Tagged With: China, future, modern, postmodern, traditional, values

Sharing as another indicator of consuming less

March 17, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Another post on the trend to consuming less — I sense a trend here. I came across an excellent piece on the topic by Emily Badger: Share Everything: Why the Way We Consume Has Changed Forever. It illustrates many of the themes highlighted in ConsumerShift. Perhaps foremost is that it indicates a changing relationship between consumers and consumption. At its simplest, people are questioning whether they really need to own something or can they just access it when they need it. In values terms, the modern values holder wants to possess goods to demonstrate their belonging and status. The postmoderns, and especially the integrals, are less concerned with their status – having felt they have achieved it, and thus less concerned with collecting goods and possessions. Note, I’m saying “less” concerned, not unconcerned. So the postmoderns and integrals look at sharing as an interesting option – do I really need that? Do I need to have my music physically on my device, or am I willing to pay for a subscription and have it streamed? Perhaps the prototype of sharing is ZipCar, built on the idea in the urban areas, where parking is scarce and expensive, possession is actually a pain!

The cycle aspect, for the more cynical among us, suggests we are simply returning to our roots, and that this is much ado about nothing. Even in the present, Badger notes that “we’re used to the notion of sharing libraries, public parks, and train cars.” In my work with values, almost every time I give a talk, someone suggests that postmodern/integral values are simply new versions of traditional values. Well, okay, I can see that, but the key factor is the context. Values are intimately linked to context, or life conditions to use Spiral Dynamics language. It doesn’t really work to suggest that what’s happening in 2013 urban areas is a return to medieval farming community values (or whatever the example is).

Bumping the discussion to a higher level, futurists and others have been playing with notions of what the “next” economy might look like. Descriptions such as the open-source economy, gift economy, relationship economy, attention economy, etc. At our Master’s program last Spring, we had a day-long meeting on “After Capitalism” that was inspired by student interest. Sharing, I suspect, is at the heart of what’s next. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumers, consumption, emily badger, integral, modern, postmodern, sharing, spiral dynamics, values, zipcar

Values and football

October 26, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I am a big New England Patriots football fan (US football, not soccer). I grew up outside of Boston and have maintained ties to the local sports teams wherever I have lived. Football is the quintessential modern sport where it’s all about winning the big prize, the Super Bowl, with over 100 million viewers. The politically correct way that the coaches and athletes speak about football is to focus on how their team is going to win – any deviation from that script often results in a firestorm.

A little context. Last weekend the Patriots lost a lead but then came back to win in overtime. It was perhaps symbolic of the season so far, in which the Patriots were big favorites and almost lost – arguably the team is not playing as well as was forecast. The Patriots have been right at the top of the league for more than a decade ago, and just missed another title in last year’s Super Bowl. This year’s team is a “mortal” 4 wins and 3 losses.

I follow the local media coverage and participate in some of the online fan forums where we can talk about the teams and games. I have noticed a seemingly “over-the-top” negativity about the team. To the point of downright hostility. Fans are angry that the team seems to be under-performing and are questioning not only the abilities but the character of the coaches and players. Some of this always goes on, but it seems more intense than ever.

After last week’s game, star quarterback Tom Brady was quoted as saying: “Maybe we just spoiled some people in the meantime, cause it’s hard to win man, it’s hard to win.” Well, you can imagine that this was like kicking the hornet’s nest. Brady, as a star player, is mostly beloved, but even he is under scrutiny by many. His quote provided ammunition to his detractors that “his head is no longer in the game” or “he no longer cares about winning” and so on and so forth. He was politically incorrect in suggest that the other teams are pretty good, and the other guys are trying pretty hard (the audacity!).

It caused me reflect a bit on Brady’s evolution (from a fan perspective). Earlier in his career, I would say in his strong “modern values” phase, he was lauded as being the “first one into practice and last one out” and working extra hard in the off-season. He would often be seen on the sidelines “fired up” and emotional, perhaps yelling at teammates to get them going or throwing his helmet. He was 100% committed to football – there was nothing else in his life that mattered. A perfect profile of “modern” values centered on achievement (see ConsumerShift)

And he and the team enjoyed great success. As he matured his range of interests expanded and while his interest in football was at the top of the list, he got married and had a child and then re-married to the supermodel Giselle. In his press conferences, you could hear someone taking a more balanced view on life. I think his quote about the maybe spoiling the fans is completely accurate and fair and that it is equally fair to note that it is difficult to win (only 3 teams in his conference have winning records). And on the sidelines, we see less of the “maniacal” fire. But still an extremely high level of performance.

I would say that Brady has moved out of “modern” values as his primary orientation. Does that mean he does not care? Not at all. As we move out of a values phase, we don’t lose our ability to access it. A postmodern or integral person can tap their “modern” when the life conditions (a football game) are there. They just won’t stay there, and in the press conference after the game, out comes the postmodern/integral — to the horror of the modern fans.

I think of the contrast in how we teach kids sports today. In Little League baseball, the modern parents and coaches get hyper-competitive and obsessive about their kids winning these games. The postmodern parents focus on participation and are behind the schemes to get everyone a trophy just for playing. The Integral perspective would see sports as an opportunity for one to “test their mettle,” but with an appreciation for “the other team” and an enjoyment of the process (the game) and not overly fixated on who wins or loses and see it as a enjoyable and an opportunity for learning.

I don’t expect the modern context of sports to change anytime soon. I do expect the postmodern phase to be rather quick. The Integral phase, in balancing individual and group needs, strikes me as “workable.” I can imagine a fan base that appreciates the beauty of the contest, the effort of the players, and has a perspective that “life goes on” if we lose. But maybe that is a distant forecast? Andy Hines.

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: football, integral, modern, new england patriots, postmodern, tom brady, values

New Values Types Summary Graphic

September 22, 2012 by Andy Hines 2 Comments

Could no longer avoid the Saturday morning to-do list item: “create summary graphic of values types described in ConsumerShift.” So here it is. I thought readers of this blog might find it useful. I’d welcome feedback — please be kind, design has never been my strong suit. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, integral, modern, postmodern, traditional, values, values types

India experiencing the transition to modern values

September 19, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

The Pew Center, always an excellent source of data, posted some useful data on the status of India’s economy and society under the heading: Values under Stress. The piece notes that “India is a society in the grip of rapid economic and social transformation.” As is typical of the transition, “Indians both embrace this change and worry about its impact on their traditional way of life.” As we would also expect, “the young, people who live in cities, the better-educated, the wealthier” are more receptive to the up-tempo pace of life brought on by modernization. And, almost half of Indians see consumerism and commercialism of the modern economy as a threat to Indian culture.

When I describe the modernization transition with groups, I often cite Inglehart and The World Values Survey central point of modern values as the achievement orientation. In the Pew study, “two-in-three Indians say most people can succeed if they are willing to work hard.” This suggests a break with the traditional society emphasis on fulfilling one’s role.

Since ConsumerShift put emphasis on the leading edge of values change, typically taking place in the affluent countries. This post is a good reminder that values change is also taking place in the emerging markets and the scope and scale of that change is tremendous. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, India, modern, Pew Center, values, world values survey

Is Homo Economicus in decline?

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

A few comments on an interesting brief post How the ‘Free Market’ Is Consuming Our Values on a book by Harvard professor Michael Sandel about the encroachment of economic thought to previously non-economic areas of life. Or in my words, it’s the notion that market solutions can be found for just about any problem — we are Homo Economicus. In the Houston Futures Studies program course on Social Change, we’ve identified “Markets” as one of ten principal theories of social change. And historically speaking, it may never have been more “alive and well” than it is now.

Of interest here, is how this plays out going forward and what might be the role of the values changes we’ve been discussing in ConsumerShift. A market orientation fits neatly with the modern values and worldview. The emphasis is on achievement, growth, and competition. These “goals” are well-suited to market approaches. If the goal is to win then it makes sense to set up competitive games to tap that motivation. The market approaches are “means” serving the modern values/worldview “ends.”

In the future, I would suggest that as the “ends” change, the means will as well, thus I suspect our infatuation with market forces will recede over time. The postmodern “ends” of community, sustainability, and wellness will drive a search for different “means” — social entrepreneurship comes to mind (even here still using the language of the market!). Market mechanisms are not likely to work for these means – though they will be tried. For instance, market approaches to sustainability are trotted out there, but I suspect will come to be found wanting. It’s not a fit.

Even though we’ve identified the rise of postmodern values in many places, modern values are still dominant in many more places (including the USA). Thus we see the prevalence of market-based means serving growth ends. It’s a matter of time, I believe, before new means will emerge to catch up with our new ends. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight, Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, economics, integral, modern, postmodern, values

Tapping values as central to brand success

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

A new study by WPP Group’s global research agency Millward Brown and Jim Stengel, former global marketing officer of Procter & Gamble, found that a common theme across the fifty fast-growing brands is their ability to connect to a higher-order purpose. It was reported in an article: Fastest Growing Brands Are Ideal Driven. Higher-order purpose is in turn related to five areas of “fundamental human values”: eliciting joy, enabling connection, inspiring exploration, evoking pride and impacting society (having a broad affect on society, such as challenging the status quo or redefining categories).

The research in ConsumerShift supports the notion that connecting to purpose and values will be increasingly important to brand success in the future. In this case, the particular value types tracked appear to range across the types of values in the book:

Evoking pride taps modern values
Enabling connection, inspiring exploration, and eliciting joy (in the sense of search for happiness) tap postmodern values
Impacting society taps integral values

Traditional values are not explicitly targeted, which makes sense given that newer brands will tend to appeal to “newer”consumer types, thus postmodern values are tapped the most, which makes sense given they are the largest new set (being that “integral” values are just emerging on the scene). Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: brands, consumer understanding, Consumershift, integral, modern, postmodern, traditional, values

Values have a center of gravity

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Real life is messy and people typically do not fit into neat little boxes with values any more than they do in any other dimension of their lives. Using the New Dimensions framework, people may have some core values in more than one type. An individual said to have postmodern values, for example, may still identify some modern and/or integral values as well. It is more accurate to suggest that if someone has postmodern values, those represent the individual’s center of gravity.

The developmental approach (which says there is a consistent direction of change of time) suggests that some values get left behind—one doesn’t lose them, but rather shifts them down in the list of priorities. Similarly, some values are future-oriented or aspirational; in that case, an individual is moving toward them, but hasn’t quite incorporated them yet. So, we have a mix, usually, and a mix that typically evolves over time, as ur life conditions change and we are presented with new challenges to our values – sometimes our existing values are up to the task, and at other times we decide to change. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: center of gravity, consumer understanding, Consumershift, integral, modern, postmodern, traditional, types, values

From Modern to Postmodern Values

August 30, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

We talked about how traditional values are not going away in the postmodern world and remain alive and well. Modern values are in an even stronger position – they are dominant in the emerging markets and remain a strong influence in the affluent nations. A key theme of ConsumerShift is that the transition from modern to postmodern values is reaching a tipping point in the next decade in the affluent nations – where postmodern values will become the leading values orientation. This transition was masterfully covered by Ronald Inglehart in Modernization and Postmodernization, which I put with Spiral Dynamics as the most influential book(s) on my thinking.

This transition is not always going to be smooth. The four types of values each represent something of a course-correction to their predecessors. Modern values in part correct for perceived inadequacies of traditional values; postmodern for modern, and integral for postmodern. Modern values emphasizes achievement and upward mobility to “correct” for the rigid roles of traditional values. Postmodern values have an anti-materialist ethos that corrects for the strong materialism of modern values. Integral values look for the most functional approach in reaction to the strong relativism of postmodern values that tends to suggest all approaches are of equal.

So, while some audiences will say that they see similarities between traditional and postmodern values, they do not see them for modern and postmodern values. This may require some tough choices. For instance, will it be possible to maintain relationships a core, bread-and-butter modern values customer group while moving to appeal to a new postmodern group? Or will they feel betrayed? It could be a bumpy ride. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, modern, postmodern, values

Introducing Four Types of Values for the Future

August 30, 2012 by Andy Hines 3 Comments

Having defined values in my last post, now is the time to describe the types of values shaping the future. I will cover some of the previous systems for categorizing values I came across in doing the research for ConsumerShift, but right upfront it is important to acknowledge the most influential sources: Ron Inglehart and colleague’s World Values Survey and Don Beck and colleagues’ Spiral Dynamics. Building on their work, my work and the work of my many colleagues doing foresight consulting work over the last several years, four types (or categories) of values will be prevalent in the future:

Traditional: Focused on following the rules and fulfilling one’s predetermined role, with priorities such as respect for authority, religious faith, national pride, obedience, work ethic, large families with strong family ties, and strict definition of good and evil

Modern: Focused on achievement, growth and progress, with priorities such as high trust in science and technology (as the engines of progress), faith in the state (bureaucratization), rejection of out-groups, an appreciation of hard work and money, and determination to improve one’s social and economic status.

Postmodern: Focused on the search for meaning in one’s life, with priorities such as self-expression, including an emphasis on individual responsibility as well as choice, imagination, tolerance, life balance and satisfaction, environmentalism, wellness, and leisure.

Integral: Emerging as the leading edge of values change, with a more practical and functional approach to employing values that best fit the particular situation, enabling one to pursue personal growth with an understanding and sensitivity to larger systemic considerations.

More to come……Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: Consumershift, integral, modern, postmodern, traditional, values

Categories