Futures Studies | Hinesight

What do we call it?

April 12, 2013 by Andy Hines 3 Comments

It’s been great to hear growing interest in developing the field and profession of _______, um, what do you call it?

I looked at this question in my dissertation and found it has received intermittent attention over the years (Cornish, 1977; Horton, 1999; Becker, 2002; Schwarz, 2005; Amsteus, 2008; Sardar, 2010; Masini, 2010; Marien, 2010; Tonn, 2010; Rohrbeck, 2011). The pattern seems to be one of (a) flurry of activity (b) inability to achieve consensus (c) long quiet period, (d) repeat.

One phenomenon I’ve noticed in that last 10 years at APF, which has an active listserv for conversations, is that when this or related questions about the field/profession get raised, two things happen: (1) someone inevitably points out that it’s all been talked about before (2) others suggest it’s not really relevant anyway — and the conversation quickly dies out. Thus, in my experience we’ve actually talked about it very little – and this is a professional association!

I think these are critical questions for those of us interested in building the field and the profession (and fair enough, not all of us are). I suspect that if we simply try to have the conversations again spontaneously, we’ll repeat the cycle above. What I’m thinking is that we first need to figure out a strategy for how to work through these issues before we dive in again. Does that make sense? I think we can do it, but it won’t be easy.

Full disclosure: “Foresight” is my preference. Andy Hines

References

Amsteus, M. (2008) Managerial foresight: concept and measurement. foresight, 10 (1), pp.53-66.

Becker, P. (2002, October) Corporate foresight in Europe: a first overview. Working Paper. Institute for Science and Technology Studies, University of Bielefeld, Germany.

Cornish, E. (1977) The study of the future: an introduction to the art and science of understanding and shaping tomorrow’s world. Bethesda, MD, World Future Society.

Horton, A. (1999) A simple guide to successful foresight. foresight, 1 (1), pp. 5-9.

Masini, E.B. (2010) The past and the possible futures of futures studies: Some thoughts on Ziauddin Sardar’s ‘the namesake.’ Futures, 42 (3), pp.185-189.

Marien, M. (2010) Futures-thinking and identity: why ‘‘Futures Studies’’ is not a field, discipline, or discourse: a response to Ziauddin Sardar’s ‘the namesake. Futures, 42 (3) pp. 190–194.

Rohrbeck, R. & Gemünden, H. (2011) Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78 (2), pp. 231-243.

Sardar, Z. (2010) The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; Foresight — What’s in a name? Futures, 42 (3), pp. 177–184.

Schwarz, J. (2005, Fall) Linking strategic issue management to futures studies. Futures Research Quarterly, pp. 39-55.

Tonn, B. (2010) What’s in a name: reflections on Ziauddin Sardar’s ‘the namesake.’ Futures, 42 (3), pp.195-198.

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: APF, field, foresight, Futures Studies, futurist, profession

A Futurist Elevator Speech

April 2, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Someone asked me recently for my elevator speech on “what is a futurist?” Basically, if someone asks you what a futurists is, what’s your 30-second response. [And we require our students in the futures studies program to do one.] I’ll confess that I am not consistent, and that there are a whole bunch of calculations I make depending on who’s asking and how interested they appear to be. Nonetheless, here is my current take (coming in at 33 seconds when spoken).

“Historians study the past; futurist study the future. The future(s), actually. We believe there are many ways that the future could play out, and that since there so many factors involved, we don’t try to predict the right one. Instead, we forecast a range of plausible options or scenarios, and then we identify and track indicators to tell us which way the future is heading. We don’t just guess. We have a rigorous set of concepts, methods, and tools that have been developed over the last 50 years. And the whole purpose is influence the decisions we make in the present, so we work towards the futures we would like to see happen and work against those we would like to avoid. ” Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: elevator speech, foresight, Futures Studies, futurist

Houston Futures Studies at the World Future Society General Assembly 2012

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

The University of Houston’s Futures Studies program—as always–is well-represented at this year’s World Future Society General Assembly. The event is being held in Toronto from July 27-29 at the Sheraton Centre with over 1,000 participants expected.

Futures Studies’ faculty, alums, and Advisory Board members are leading four one-day pre-conference courses.

Introduction to Futures Studies, Peter Bishop
An Insider’s Guide to Foresight Consulting: A Case-Study Approach, Andy Hines (with Riel Miller)
Scenario Planning: How to Build and Use Scenarios, Alum Adam Gordon
Wiser Futures: Using Futures Tools to Better Understand and Create the Future, Advisory Board Member Clem Bezold

They are also leading nine regular conference sessions, joined by current students as well:

The Best of Houston Futures, Dr. Peter Bishop, moderator, with Jason Swanson, student, Learning Management Systems: Machines That Think; Josh Lindenger, student, Locative Media: The Internet Always Knows Where You Are; Emily Empel, Graduate, and Heather Schlegel, Student, A Systems Model of the Demographic Transition
Chemical Brain Preservation: How to Live “Forever,” Alum John Smart
The Future of Shopping: An Immersive Experience, Alum Emily Empel & Current Student Heather Schlegel
Global Futures Collective Intelligence System Advisory Board Member Ted Gordon (with Jerry Glenn)
Our Role in Shaping the Future, Alum & Former Faculty Jennifer Jarratt (with John Mahaffie)
Scouting the Future with the Implications Wheel, Advisory Board Member Joel Barket
The Evolution of Integral Futures, Faculty Terry Collins and Andy Hines
Primary Care 2025 Advisory Board Member Clem Bezold
Models of Futures Education for the 21st Century, Alum Verne Wheelright (with others)
Networked Government: The 21st Century Agency, Alum John Jackson (with others)

We are pleased to see our community well represented and look forward to a great conference! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Foresight, Talks Tagged With: conference, Futures Studies, houston futures, World Future Society

Values Changes Following a Developmental Model of Social Change

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I’m teaching a class on Social Change this semester in the Houston Futures program. The class was developed by Peter Bishop and is a great favorite of the students (and me, too). In the class, we explore ten different theories of social change, that is, how do societies change, or how does one form of society succeed another? I’ll leave a discussion of the ten types for another post, and focus on the connection to the values changes we’ve been discussing as part of ConsumerShift.

The social change theory best describing the values changes is called “development.” Development Theory states that there is a consistent direction to change in societies over time. Bishop notes that it is related to another set of familiar changes—the cycle of life from birth, through growth and maturity. Newborns of all species develop into adults using generally the same process as all other members of the species. Thus the adults of the species are larger than infants and are significantly more capable of doing whatever that species does—running, climbing, vocalizing, defending, and, of course, procreating.

It suggests that social change is analogous to how an organism develops new capabilities over time — they change in a consistent direction toward becoming more complex, not necessarily better. We don’t say that adults are better than the infants, but they are clearly more developed and possess capabilities and a level of complexity that infants do not. They are just at a different point of development.

The same point holds true for values. ConsumerShift suggests that the development pattern the societies follow — if they are willing and able — is from traditional to modern to postmodern and finally integral values. It is not saying that one type is better than another, but further along in development. A key difference from the life-cycle of an organism, however, is that societies can choose whether to develop or not, whereas organisms cannot. A society may find itself quite comfortable with traditional values and choose to stay there, or with modern values, or with postmodern.

As noted in previous posts, the pattern is that as societies develop economically, their values tend to develop in a similar fashion. Traditional societies, for instance, tend to be rather less developed economically, but as they begin to achieve economic growth, they begin to embrace modern values (which “favor” growth and achievement). This is going on in a big way in China, for instance, as it has grown rapidly in recent years. Similarly, as modern societies develop into affluent societies, they embrace postmodern values. This is especially evident in Northern Europe, where these affluent countries are the most postmodern in the world.
Thus, the development theory of social change underpins the values changes in ConsumerShift—suggesting change in a consistent direction over time, and, as suggested in previous posts, this pattern has been validated by the data in the World Values Survey. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Values Tagged With: foresight, Futures Studies, houston futures, social change, values

A Futures Family Reunion

March 23, 2011 by Andy Hines 2 Comments

Current students, alums, and professors of the Futures Studies program at the University of Houston are planning a weekend of merriment, mirth, and a little methodology in the Bayou City beginning Friday April 15 through brunch on Sunday the 17th. If you’re an alum or friend of the program, you’re invited! Our email lists aren’t always up to date, so if you weren’t invited, that’s probably why. One of the big attractions of our program is our extended community, and it’s high time we got together again.

Please RSVP or refer any questions to Darrell Holmes by April 12th. See our event schedule below:

Friday, April 15
Drinks at Leon’s Lounge @ 9p
1006 Mcgowen St, Houston, TX 77002, (713) 659-5366

Saturday, April 16
Methodology Presentation by Dr. Peter Bishop
UH Main Campus @ 2p

Values Presentation by Andy Hines
UH Main Campus @ 4p

Party at Andy Hines’ crib @ 6:30p
POTLUCK – please bring your favorite dish

714 E. 9th St., Houston, TX 77007, 832-367-5575

Sunday, April 17
Brunch at Pappadeaux’s @ 11A

2410 Richmond Ave, Houston, TX 77098, (713) 527-9137

– Andy Hines

Filed Under: Talks, Values Tagged With: Futures Studies, reunion, values

An Infiltration Approach to Foresight

March 16, 2011 by Andy Hines 2 Comments

Several years ago I identified five approaches to positioning foresight.

The inside-outside[r]: a provocateur approach that emphasizes “bringing in fresh thinking” or “shaking things up”

The stealth: stays under the radar in terms of not explicitly identifying as a futurist

The evolved: organizational insiders that have been clients of consulting futurists for years that declare themselves as futurists in their own right.

The planners: the standard planning role.

The public voice: This extremely rare positioning of the futurist publicly sharing the organization’s vision of the future and seeking to enlist the outside world to buy into it.

The infiltration approach could be viewed as a hybrid between the stealth and the evolved. The idea emerged from conversations with soon-to-be graduates in our Futures Studies Master’s Program and our Certificate course participants. We, understandably, have lots of conversations about jobs. There are relatively few openly advertised positions for futurists — we don’t see these positions in the want ads. An occasional posting will circulate on futures listserves, such as the Association of Professional Futurists. But foresight work is being done, so, how do we get futurists into these positions?

The infiltration approach suggests building a resume of skills that gets one close to where the foresight work is being done. Really, most traditional skill set will do, be it those of market research, new business development, human resources, etc. Then, we marry those skills sets with some foresight training. And we get a position close to the foresight action! The infiltrator volunteers to be on teams that deal with foresight projects, and begins a process of slowly but steadily building their internal foresight credibility. It’s sorta like the “evolved” position, but with a plan and intent.

Maybe some readers have tried this? Love to hear about it! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: foresight, Futures Studies, organizational futurist, positioning

More cooperative futurists? Revisiting the future of futures scenarios

March 8, 2011 by Andy Hines 2 Comments

Back in 2003, the Association of Professional Futurists, in its inaugural Gathering, did a scenario planning workshop on the future of the field. The idea was that there was no better place to start thinking about the future of the association, than to first map out the potential landscape. The kind of thing we advise clients to do!

I recently reviewed these scenarios with my Seminar class at the University of Houston Futures Studies program. In most cases, we saw some progress in dealing with the four key uncertainties we identified:

would demand for foresight work increase?

would significant new methods be developed?

would the marketplace see futurists as unique vis-a-vis other consultants?

would futurists/the field work more closely together?

For the first three, we agreed some positive progress could be cited. Foresight demand has increased in some industries and geographies. There has been some methodological innovation with Causal Layered Analysis and Integral Futures as examples. Futurists perhaps have earned a small degree of distinction or “cool” as more and more people are calling themselves futurists. Some progress, perhaps not overwhelming, or as great as hoped, but not bad overall.

We felt that the greatest progress was perhaps made in futurists working together more closely. The emergence of the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) is one example of professional futurists across the globe working together more closely. The APF list has developed a collegiality that commonly involves questions asking for the sharing of expertise that works in a reciprocal fashion and has helped build more formal. collaboration as well. Key longstanding organizations organizations such as the World Futures Studies Federation and World Future Society have been joined by The Millennium Project, which been building an increasingly robust global network from its non-profit platform, and Shaping Tomorrow, which has emerged as an important private sector network.

We saw a potential for even greater cooperation moving forward. It would be really interesting, we thought, to have something like a Summit of as many of the foresight-related organizations as practical. Hmmmm. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: Association of Professional Futurists, foresight, future, Futures Studies, futurist, scenario

Better Consulting Futurists

March 4, 2011 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Many futurists make their living as consultants, mostly as external consultants but even those working within a single organization may often find themselves in the role of an internal consultant. (For more on the internal futurist role, see “An Audit for Organizational Futurists.”) Yet we do precious little on teaching futurists how to be better consultants. One area where we tackle this need at the University of Houston Futures Studies Program. is in our capstone Seminar class. Last night’s class dealt with this consulting topic, and reminded and refreshed me on how much good thinking is out there, just waiting for us to use. We give students the option of choosing one of four books to read.

Peter Block, Flawless Consulting

Alan Weiss, Million Dollar Consulting

David Maister et al, The Trusted Advisor

Mahan Khalsa, Let’s Get Real or Let’s Not Play

A key theme in all of these is the importance of building relationships. Each has its particular strengths. Block is really strong on process. Weiss is especially helpful on setting fees and building up a practice from the beginning, Maister is terrific on how to evolve from consultant to a “trusted advisor,” and Khalsa helps making selling palatable to those for whom it is typically note. As I went through my notes, I kept noting to myself, geez, I should be doing that! Nothing like teaching to help the “doing!” I highly recommend these four works, and welcome any additional suggestions. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Foresight Tagged With: consulting, consulting futurist, foresight, Futures Studies, futurist, higher education, organizational futurist

Where will training come from?

February 26, 2011 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Not from employers! That’s been the long-term trend. The crude joke is that training has moved from in-house to the outhouse. Does anyone remember the days when upon being hired, one was subject to a week’s worth of training? Then periodic training was not only available, but mandatory. Some may welcome the removal of mandatory, but the pendulum has swung far in the other direction, to the point that employer-provided training is increasingly scarce.

As a professor with the University of Houston’s Futures Studies program, I see the challenge being particularly acute for younger students without significant workforce experience. Their potential is not viewed as worth much — what experience do they have? It’s a classic catch-22. Thus, we try to provide internships, and have even tailored our curriculum to provide work samples as part of a portfolio that one may show a potential employer.

This development reflects the evolution of the workplace. Large training investments make sense when one is going to be with an organization for years or even a lifetime. They make less sense with the typical shorter stays of today’s employees, who jump from organization to organization, often as contractors and sometimes on a project-by-project basis.

An implication for individual workers is in learning how to creatively and cost-effectively get the training one needs, and build up a portfolio of skills on their own.

An implication for organizations and HR professionals is that instead of providing training, they may become a clearinghouse that identifies others sources for acquiring essential skills and knowledge.

I will talk more about this and other “surprises” about the future of work in the Spring issue of Employment Relations Todayin a piece called “A Dozen Surprises about the Future of Work.” Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Work Tagged With: Futures Studies, human resources, training, work

Future Jobs…on Houston Public Television

December 17, 2010 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I really enjoyed my appearance with Latina Voices on Houston Public Television on November 8th. Very nice people! We talked about the future of jobs. Here is the clip – my piece starts at 11:27 and goes on for about 10 minutes. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Forecasting, Media Tagged With: future, Futures Studies, futurist, higher education, jobs, Latina Voices, Medical Center, nanotechnology, technology, television, values, work

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