future | Hinesight

16 things that made me go hmmm at APF’s “Play”

May 7, 2013 by Andy Hines 1 Comment

Thought I’d share some musings from my experience at the APF “Play” gathering. Borrowing from the old C&C Factory song, here are 16 Things That Made Me Go Hmmm.(I’m not attributing as I don’t want to misquote anyone or get them in trouble)

LVC for types of simulation: Live players – football practice; Virtual – people in virtual; Constructive – virtual in virtual
Models –> simulations –> forecasts
Difference between play and games: Play is about exploration, without winners and losers; Games are based on a model and have winners and losers
Two outcomes for training simulations: (1) Learning about the situation, e.g., how to fight fires (2) Learning about oneself, e.g., how did I behave in the situation?
“We don’t care about succeeding…we sometimes fantastically fail…learn….and keep learning”
It occurred to me (andy) that personas are going to move from posters to simulations
I’ve been trying to think of what to call the six activities of foresight we teach: framing, scanning, forecasting, visioning, planning, action; I saw some word art on a wall that looked like a spine, but that didn’t seem right, but “backbone” did. Wonder if it will stick? Ideas seem to emerge when you’re in a relaxed environment, with good people, and enjoying yourself.
Evolution of big data from descriptive to predictive to prescriptive
“Smart cities” of the future may not be connected by geography, but rather by the smart ICT platform
It was touching to see “the Godfather” appropriately recognized (nice job, Lee!)
“Research makes zombie games really useful.”
App culture has decimated the game studios, and very few app makers make any money
There is a dark side to gamification – e.g., social games are really about getting your money more than about encouraging social good
On my summer “to do” list: developing more games in our curriculum
APF has done amazingly well in consistently making the gatherings an ideal blend of learning, networking, and fun.
Futurists are really fun people, perhaps a bit crazy, but good crazy! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: APF, foresight, future, games, gaming, Play, professional futurist, simulation

Reflections on the Future of Cities

April 29, 2013 by Andy Hines 1 Comment

The Houston Futures extended family gathered for a weekend of futures fun on April 12 and 13. While a key purpose is to give students, prospective students, alums, faculty and friends a chance to socialize and network in person, there was also plenty of good discussion about the future. The topic theme on “city making” was curated by alum and Adjunct Faculty Dr. Cindy Frewen. Since Cindy and Dr. Bishop are putting on a summer course on Design Futures and design is an integral feature of city-making.

A great part of these events is getting to see familiar faces who we don’t get to see often enough. Professor Emeritus Oliver Markley kicked off the Saturday conference with a stellar presentation on “Alternative Images for Cities of the Future.” Among the points particularly catching my attention was a video (shareable future of cities) he showed from Alex Steffen of Worldchanging.com that raised the provocative notion that perhaps trying to making “clean energy” vehicles is a misdirected approach to clean, livable cities. Rather, he suggests, get rid of the vehicles altogether. He proceeded to demonstrated how make cities, or areas within cities, denser could effectively eliminate the need for vehicles. If everything is within walking distance, why drive? Brilliant!

Oliver was followed by new friend Todd Gentzel, Chief Strategist at Yaffe Deutser in Houston, who gave a brilliant presentation “Psychology and the Field of the Future.” Among his striking points was the introduction of Philip Zimbardo’s work on the psychology of time. Todd shared his framework of six time perspectives:

· PAST NEGATIVE (ﬁxated on a difﬁcult past)
· PAST POSITIVE (nostalgic for the good old days)
· PRESENT FATALISM (resigned to the forces of fate)
· PRESENT HEDONISM (living in and for the moment)
· FUTURE (planning for a better tomorrow)
· FUTURE TRANSCENDENTAL (anticipating the beyond)

Wonderful, such a handy framework in working with clients or audiences. Definitely something we need to work into our curriculum.

Rives Taylor, Director of Sustainable Design at Gensler, who is going to help out with the Design Futures course this summer, presented “Lessons from Houston: Infrastructure of a Resilient City.” I had to suppress a squeal of delight when Rives presented a slide on Integral Thinking for “Resilience Planning.” The use of the integral 2×2 also had my Alternative Perspectives students in the audience smiling as this was a topic we devoted significant class time to. It’s great to see the spread of sophisticated futures thinking spreading.

Finally, Cindy presented “Great Urban Divides” that addressed the issue of how can cities accommodate the influx of population coming in the emerging markets – with their growing levels of affluence threatening to put a great strain on urban capabilities. My greatest takeaway the sharp drops in population forecast for China and India beginning mid-century. Sure, my mental modeling surmised they would level off, but seeing the graph with the decline was somewhat jarring. Reminds us of the important of taking the long view, which, um, yeah, we’re supposed to be doing!

There was more, but those were some high-level personal highlights for me. Of course, putting a bunch of futurists and friends together for a day, I would expect nothing less. Andy Hines.

Filed Under: Education, Foresight Tagged With: alex steffen, cindy frewen, cities, foresight, future, houston futures, Oliver Markley, rives taylor, todd gentzel, urban

Future of Knowledge Work

April 18, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I have a new article that I put together with my frequent collaborator Chris Carbone of Innovaro on the Future of Knowledge Work published in Employment Relations Today. It explores how knowledge work is being reshaped by a variety of social and technological forces that together will alter how it is distributed, organized, and performed in coming years. It is based on a research project by Innovaro (then Social Technologies) that used scenario planning to explore four possible futures for knowledge work and was conducted on behalf of 17 sponsors. The domain map below shows how we framed the research.

The scenarios suggest a range of plausible outcomes for knowledge work out to 2020. Virtual Teams Collaborating suggests a future most similar to today, where present trends continue and strengthen and enable a quite manageable transition to a greater reliance on knowledge work. Back to Basics, on the other hand, presents a plausible picture of how a greater reliance on knowledge work is not a given, as tough economic times and security concerns compel a retreat to a world of work more like the past than the present. Socially Centric Work also presents a series of challenges to knowledge work, but in this scenario they are successfully resolved, relying on a much greater integration of social networking tools to manage the transition to the world of knowledge work that goes deeper than Virtual Teams Collaborating. Finally, Personalized Professions presents a more provocative view of knowledge work that has a transformative effect on how work is done, leading to a future in which all workers are thought of as knowledge workers.

It is interesting to note that the trend to more of the 5 “izations” — digitization, collaboration, globalization, virtualization, and personalization — is present in three of the four scenarios, varying in timing and the extent of penetration. Only in Back to Basics, where I/T security concerns are front and center, are the “izations” stalled. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Forecasting, Foresight, Work Tagged With: collaboration, digitization, foresight, future, futurists, globalization, knowledge work, personalization, scenarios, virtualization

Glass Houses

April 5, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

A great post by “The Consumerist” on a social-media driven issue on Future of Artificial Dyes in Kraft Macaroni & Cheese. Mary Beth Quirk tells the story of how two bloggers triggered an online petition with over 270,000 signatures that led to a meeting between the bloggers and Kraft. Here’s a telling quote from the piece: “In a one-hour meeting with me and [the other blogger], Kraft told us they ‘can’t predict the future’ of dyes in Macaroni & Cheese,” she said. “I can give them a preview: if Kraft is anything like the hundreds of other companies facing a consumer uprising online, they’ll eventually start listening to their customers and work with us to ensure the health and safety of all Kraft Macaroni & Cheese products.” That is strong stuff!

In ConsumerShift, “Glass Houses” was one of the seven key “meta-needs” reshaping the consumer landscape. It suggested that growing numbers of consumers would shift to an activist and sometimes aggressive orientation. They would be intolerant of behavior they deem wrong and are not afraid to let the offender, or any interested party, know about it. They feel they are not to be trifled with and that their values and beliefs are important and need to be respected. These consumers are watching, often all the time. They are often savvy users of technology and expert in the world of information, and they use that to support their cause. Accountability is the buzzword; it won’t always be pleasant; and it won’t always be fair. The best an organization can do is stay consistent and true—or, closing the circle back to our first need state cluster, be authentic. “Spin” and message control and such tools will only get organizations into trouble. Telling the truth will, eventually at least, earn respect and credibility that will be appreciated and rewarded over the long haul.

Sounds like we have an interesting case example of “glass houses” here! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight, Values Tagged With: activism, activist, consumerist, Consumershift, future, glass houses, kraft, need states, needs, values

The Future of Credit Unions: Four Scenarios

March 20, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

It’s nice to seen that the good folks at Filene Research Institute, a think tank for the credit union industry, has made a report I did for them a year or so ago available to the public: Global Trends: Drivers, Values, Implications, and Strategic Questions for Credit Unions. In my shorthand, it’s “Four Scenarios.” I had been giving various trend talks to credit unions for a few year and Filene approached me about pulling together a more comprehensive story on the future of credit unions. We agreed scenarios would be a good way to do it.

I have become a fan of the scenario archetype method (kudos to Foresight Alliance colleague Mark Justman for bring this technique to my attention several years back,which emerged from the Hawaii Futures program was written up by Wendy Shultz). At my former firm, Innovaro, we used archetypes to our frame a response to a myriad of client inquiries to the question: “how is the recession going to play out?” that began pouring in back in 2008.

Since credit unions are so heavily dependent on economic futures, I felt the archetype methods would be a great fit for this project — and it was (or at least, I hope you’ll agree that it was!) I don’t want to give the whole plot away, but here is the high-level description of the four scenarios:

The report details the assumptions, drivers, and implications. I hope that credit union strategists will find it directly applicable and perhaps futurists will find it useful as well as an example of client work. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: archetypes, credit unions, Filene Research Institute, future, scenarios

Big Data, Cities, Simulations and the Future

March 7, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I read an interesting piece in the Sunday NY Times a few weeks ago called “SimCity for Real” Measuring an Untidy Metropolis.” It talked about a “smart city” initiative at NYU seeking to use sensing, computing, and data-sifting technology to improve efficiency and quality of life in urban areas. Big players are partnering in the initiative, such as IBM, Cisco, and Xerox, as well as universities and the city of New York. The project leader says he wants to “create a SimCity for real.”

As futurists, we try to pay special attention when trends and developments from separate or unrelated places, sectors, or groups come together and suggest a common theme. Maybe that’s why this story caught my attention – surely, it’s not the first “smart city” article I’ve seen. So, maybe the connection comes from:

Nary a day goes by that there isn’t a story about “Big Data” (see this Google Trends graph) and it’s been part of some of my recent project work
The Houston Futures program chose “City Making” as theme for its Houston Futures Gathering on April 12 and 13.
A month later, (May 2-4) the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) is hosting a gathering on simulations called PLAY: Games, Simulations and The Future.

Hmm, perhaps something is brewing here? Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: APF, Big Data, city making, future, houston futures, Simulations, Smart Cities

America sacrifices the future for the present

February 25, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

“Instead of sacrificing the present for the sake of the future, Americans now sacrifice the future for the sake of the present.”

Ouch! I’m afraid columnist David Brooks of the New York Times is right in his recent “Carpe Diem Nation” piece. (BTW, thanks to colleague Margaret Tellegen for putting this in my mailbox – I do appreciate topic suggestions….from all!) Brooks dabbles in futures-oriented topics and brings a sense of humor to it that I appreciate. I really enjoyed his book “Bobos in Paradise,” which looks at how intellectual prowess, rather than wealth or material goods accumulation, is the new measuring stick of status.

In his column, Brooks notes how America was founded on a vision of creating a land of opportunity and a place where one could aspire to a better future. This required sacrifice in the present. I think it’s safe to say that sacrifice in the present is more tolerable when you are building toward a future vision. The classic work in the foresight field on the role of vision is Fred Polak’s “The Image of the Future.” This was the book that really turned me on to the future when I read it as an undergrad…so many years ago. Polak provided a historical analysis of how a guiding image of the future was vital to the success of societies. And he fretted that current society (roughly the 1970s) lacked a compelling image of the future. He took a global view (he is Dutch and his work was translated into English by Elise Boulding).

I think it’s fair to argue that we haven’t yet found that compelling image. And perhaps that is a key driver of the current willingness to “get what you can in the present, because who knows about the future (my words, not Brooks).”

It may be that futurists’ greatest contribution to the world could lie in helping to articulate and craft a compelling vision of the future. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: David Brooks, foresight, future, futurists, image, Polak, vision

Future of Values Annotated Bibliography

February 21, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I’m happy to share the annotated bibliography of key sources for ConsumerShift. It could come in handy for those doing some research on the topic and perhaps a great source of summer reading! I’d more than welcome any suggested additions to the collection. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: bibliography, Consumershift, future, values

Futurists’ focus on the outside neglects its own inside

September 27, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Futurists routinely make the point to clients that they are so focused on their own industry and its trends and developments, that they miss important developments from the “outside.” We are the champions for bringing the outside in. It is one of our core competences as futurists.

Let’s reverse the spotlight for a minute and put it on ourselves as futurists thinking about our own future as an industry (or profession). The inverse applies — we are overly focused on the outside and neglect our “industry” when it comes to our own future.

Fifty-ish years into our existence, we are still not sure if we are a capability, a field, a discipline, or a profession. And if you asked most futurists, they frankly wouldn’t care. Our focus is inherently about the larger global context and “bigger issues. I get it.

But I think this is a problem for us. I’m motivated in large part by my dissertation research that explored why it is so difficult to integrate foresight into organizations. One of, if not the key obstacle, is our lack of credibility. And it seems to me that one mechanism we have at our disposal to improve our collective credibility and prospects is building a profession (“industry-level” stuff). It’s the “the” answer, but it could help and it’s something within our purview to do (rather than just complain). Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: Association of Professional Futurists, foresight, future, profession

Enoughness and the Future of Communications Research

September 8, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

UH Certificate in Strategic Foresight alum Robert Moran, now a quoted me around “enoughness” in his piece “The Future of Communications Research for PR Week. Bob is now a partner at Brunswick Group, where he leads the insights function for the Americas. Alas, a subscription is required to read the full article. The gist of my contribution is that “enoughness” describes a new, post-crash consumer ethos with an edge, as consumers have had enough of the consumer rat-race and “corpspeak” and now they want simplicity. I’ve described enoughness as one of the five key changes in the emerging consumer landscape. I borrowed the term from my friend and colleague Marcus Barber at Looking Up, Feeling Good. He’s done great work on the future of values and readers of this blog are sure to find his work of great interest. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Media, Values Tagged With: Bob Moran, Brunswick Group, certificate in strategic foresight, communications research, enoughness, future, Looking Up Feeling Good, Marcus Barber, PR Weekly, values

Categories