energy | Hinesight

Talking Energy and Environment in Houston

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I enjoyed being a [small] part of The Texas Tribune Festival On the Road: A Symposium on Energy and the Environment held at the University of Houston Campus last week. I hosted a table discussion on the future of energy and and environment over lunch. I introduced the “Long Boom” and “Soft Path” scenario archetypes to stimulate the discussion. We ranged over a variety of topics including the possibility of a nuclear revival, noting the potential environmentalist dilemma (CO2 or nuke waste?) Two visiting students from overseas enhanced the conversation with their polite incredulity at some of the “excesses” in US approaches to energy consumption while noting the incredible research going on here and the possibilities for a breakthrough in alternative energy. A great event — look forward to next years. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight, Science & Technology, Talks Tagged With: archetypes, energy, environment, future, long boom, soft path

Yergin’s Quest suggests energy future won’t be too different in twenty years….

August 31, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

….although things could get interesting after that, due to the long lead time required for significant changes in the energy systems. We simply can’t “switch” overnight, and part of Yergin’s new book tells the story of significant changes in the energy industry–and how long they took!

Yergin visited the University of Houston’s Global Energy Management Institute led by Joe Prattto promote his new book The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World.

This book takes over in 1990, where the essential history of the petroleum industry, The Prize, left off. A lot happened since then: no more Soviet Union, rise of China, climate change emerges as big issue. On the energy front, a couple of the more interesting developments have been fairly recent. He noted that Fukushimaeffectively ended the nuclear renaissance. The Arab Spring ”could go on for a decade.” Shale gas in the US has broken into the mainstream. Canadian tar sands are brings additional supply onto the scene. And “tight oil.”

So, there is good news and bad news — how does it net out? As suggested above, much the same. To put Yergin’s forecast in context, it’s what we at the University of Houston Futures programrefer to as the baseline forecast, or the most likely future. That is, it is how the future will turn out if present trends continue and there are no big surprises. The joke in the field, however, is that “the surprise-free future…isn’t.” That is, the future rarely unfolds “on trend” and without surprises. Thus, we explore alternative futures. Still, the baseline future provides the valuable service of “grounding” our exploration of the future. Yergin points out some pretty obvious trends that should continue — shift of the industry to greater attention to china, growing environmental considerations, the rebirth of renewables, and a greater role for conservation — and some that are less obvious, such as a “pre-salt” breakthrough in seismic technology leading to discoveries that could enable Brazil to becoming a more important energy player than Venezuela in South America.

All told, an enjoyable and useful talk. I, of course, would have like to hear more about what’s beyond the next 20 years, when things could look different, but I suspect that’s a good topic for his next book. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Forecasting Tagged With: daniel yergin, energy, future

More Energy Futures

August 30, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I shouldn’t be surprised that the future of energy is a popular topic here in Houston. Just wanted to thank my friends at Foster Marketingfor posting some highlight from my Which Energy Future talk.. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Forecasting, Talks Tagged With: energy, Foster Marketing, future, Houston

“Which Energy Future?” presentation

March 21, 2011 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Here’s my “Which Energy Future?”presentation that I developed using some material from my colleague Chris Carbone and friends at Innovaro. I gave this presentation for Harvey Nash, a global recruiting firm with a keen interest in the future. We are collaborating on a white paper on the future of energy which I hope will be out soon. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Forecasting, Talks Tagged With: energy, future, Harvey Nash, scenario

Two Scenarios for the Future of Houston presentation file

February 23, 2011 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Here is a link to my Two scenarios for the future of houston. I really enjoyed the group. Great questions and discussion. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: energy, forecast, Houston, long boom, postmodern, soft path, sustainability, technology, values

Which Energy Future?….Youtube Clip

December 16, 2010 by Andy Hines 2 Comments

My good friends at Harvey Nash were kind enough to post a short Youtube video clip of me after my Which Energy Future? talk, in which I synthesize the essence of the Q&A. It covers issues on the mind of human resources professionals in attendance, such as where they are likely to find energy industry talent as the industry globalizes. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Forecasting, Media, Talks Tagged With: clip, energy, Futures Studies, futurist, global, Harvey Nash, human resources, talk

Which Energy Future?

November 1, 2010 by Andy Hines 23 Comments

I’m giving a talk on the future of energy on November 11th…….

Attend Our Exclusive Houston Event: Which Energy Future?

An exclusive event with compelling insight into the future of Energy.
The global energy industry is of critical importance to national security and it is being threatened by the federally imposed drilling moratorium, uncertainty on taxation and an absent energy policy. Internationally renowned Futurist, Energy Industry Advisor and University of Houston Professor Andy Hines offers three scenarios for the future of energy in the United States and the world. Join Mr. Hines and Harvey Nash Global CEO Albert Ellis for a thought-provoking, engaging and informative event that you simply cannot afford to miss.

RSVP to Attend the Harvey Nash Event: Which Energy Future?
Event Details
Date: November 11, 2010
Time: 7:30-9:00 a.m. Continental breakfast, presentation and Q&A with Andy Hines
Where: The Houstonian Hotel, 111 North Post Oak Lane, Houston, Texas 77024

– Andy Hines

Filed Under: Talks Tagged With: energy, future, futurist, Harvey Nash, oil, security, talk

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