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You are here: Home / Archives for change

A cop out on change?

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I wonder if y’all have been having the experience where we talk about future changes and developments and the audience – typically Boomer-centric – attributes these changes to younger generations. It is most common with technology topics, especially information and communications technologies.

But, even when I talk about the emerging values shifts, many audiences immediately “translate” these changes into a generational approach. Thus postmodern values are seen as driven by Gen Y and whatever the next generation is called is seen as behind Integral values. Neither of these ideas is accurate. From the values perspective, the data suggests indeed that values change skews younger. So, postmoderns will be somewhat disproportionately younger, but by no means exclusively, and they are not the drivers; they are more like “inheritors.”That said, I think it is fair to say that younger generations drive communications technology changes. Although, as I point out to these audiences, most if not all of them have smarthphones and iPads or both.

This may seem a small point, but what I see as potentially pernicious is that when groups attribute change to the young, it can be a cop out. “It’s not us, it’s them.” “What can we do?” It becomes a kind of disempowering idea that deflates energy from the room. It’s almost like a victim mentality. I’ve been picking this up and doing what I can to re-direct this conversation into a more empowering mode. But I’m not sure I’m really convincing folks. Anyone else experiencing this? Any strategies that have worked? Any ideas? Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: change, consumer understanding, Consumershift, generations, values, youth

Comparing Notes on the Pace of Values Change

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

My friend and colleague, Josh Calder of the Foresight Alliance, passed on list of “Top 2011 Values for Moms and Dads are about the Same as Last Year” from the firm Iconoculture. They are global consumer research firm and I have followed and appreciated their work on values as I’ve done my research over the last dozen years. I thought it would be interesting to compare our perspectives using this short post.

They list 10 values: Family, loyalty, honesty, courtesy, authenticity, success, responsibility, equality, conscience and justice.

In the bullet points that follow, they observe: “the top 10 values….have changed very little in the past year.” Well, of course. A key point in ConsumerShift about the pace of values change is that it is very slow—significant chance can take a generation to unfold. It is hard to “catch” such change on short times scales like a year. Maybe one might pick up a “rapid” 1% shift from the previous year. So, no surprise on the consistency. If the change is happening more rapidly than that, it is likely that something other than values is being tracked, maybe attitudes or behaviors, which are more likely to change quickly.

My next reaction in looking at the list is to note some difference on what a value is: an individual view about what is most important in life that in turn guides decision-making and behavior. A key difference from many definitions is that I leave out distinctions between right and wrong. I leave that terrain to virtues. My view is that virtues are more stable (one might say timeless) and less likely to help in the quest to understand change over the long term, e.g., love. Looking at this list, I six of the ten into the category of virtues: conscience, courtesy, honesty, justice loyalty, responsibility. And this further reinforces the point that they haven’t changed over the last year….

For the four values our inventories share in common, they are spread across three of the four “New Dimensions Values Inventory” types: traditional, modern, and postmodern.” Family (family orientation in the NDVI) is traditional, equality is modern (before it morphs into its postmodern incarnation – diversity), success (achievement in the NDVI) is also modern, and authenticity is postmodern (same in NDVI).

It is important to note that I make no claims to mine being “correct.” Different researchers will have different interpretations, and that’s quite alright! A point I wanted to make beyond illustrating some differences is that I think the value of values (ahem – insert “laugh” here) is in the types. I think it is more useful to look at movements in the types – is there a shift afoot in traditional to modern, or modern to postmodern, or postmodern to integral? That will give us insight into changes visible in the consumer landscape. It’s difficult to discern changes from more or less random lists. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: change, consumer understanding, Consumershift, values

Thinking about the Future of Change and Communications

August 30, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Did a lunchtime talk “On the Front Lines of Change” for my friends at IABC (International Assn of Business Communicators). They asked me to suggest some ways they could help their clients anticipate and manage change — a great topic for futurists! I used the Thinking about the Future framework to organize the talk, and ran through some guidelines and examples. It strikes me how simple the suggestions we offer really are, but they are not easily done! The logic of framing the topic, scanning for signals of change, forecasting what the futures might look like, visioning where you want to be in that future, planning how to accomplish that, and acting on it. Simple, right? But not easy….Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight, Talks Tagged With: change, communications, future, IABC, thinking about the future

Coast to Coast Futures

January 3, 2011 by Andy Hines 1 Comment

Really enjoyed my appearance on Ian Punnett’s Coast to Coast radio program with University of Houston Futures faculty colleagues Peter Bishop, Terry Grim, and Garry Golden. [The show is available for download on the Coast to Coast .] Peter and I did hour #2, Terry the first half and Garry the second half our hour #3, and the Peter and I came back to take questions from callers in hour #4.

The topics ranged widely across the future. Given my current work in getting the future of values book together, I was pleased to see that topic was well-received. We talked about the postmodern shift away from an emphasis on material goods and toward the search for meaning, desire for experiences, and self-expression. We also touched on emerging jobs and how changes in the economy inevitably lead to new jobs, such as online reputation managers, virtual real estate developers, or carbon footprint managers.

We talked some about how futurists distinguish the expected future, alternative futures, and preferred futures, and that the point of our work is to help people and organizations get to their preferred futures. We also distinguished discontinuities (shifts off of the the expected future) and wildcards (low probability and high impact events).

The questions hour was fun. One caller asked about the shadow government and we were able to tie the response to our Social Change course, noting that one theory was that a power elite is the key driver of change. Ian was great and has a real interest in the future — he even came to our last Association of Professional Futurists meeting in Denver on “The Big Questions.” Andy Hines

Filed Under: Media, Values, Work Tagged With: change, coast to coast, discontinuities, jobs, postmodern, values, wildcard, work

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