I recently had the opportunity to spend a morning talking about the future of science and technology with some exchange students from China. I had them review some of the forecasts that my colleagues and I made in 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society as Reshaped by Science and Technology that we wrote back in 1995, and I revisited last year in a piece “How Accurate Are Your Forecasts?” I noticed that they seemed to believe some of the developments I saw as breaking closer to 2025 were “already here.” Perhaps the optimism of students (or the pessimism of the professor) or perhaps the achievement orientation in China that is bullish on science and technology?
Another interesting aspect of the morning was their ranking of six proposed wildcards (low-probability, high-impact events) in terms of which seemed the most likely to occur, relatively speaking. They were given 100 poker chips to “bet” with. Here’s how the rankings turned out:
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Super-Longevity. Average age could increase to 100….or beyond (385 )
Self-Assembling Nanotech. Could revolutionize manufacturing…..among other areas (313 )
The Singularity. Machine intelligence exceeds biological intelligence by about 2045 (237)
Global Pandemic. The world is overdue for a global pandemic, potentially coming from viruses (due to increased global travel) or the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, among others (225 )
Brain Enhancement. Advances in brain science could enable a wide range of new applications, from implants to mind reading to downloading consciousness. (155 )
Ecosystem Collapse. Many argue that humanity is using up resources faster than they can be replenished, presaging a “collapse.” (150 )
Pretty strong belief in the stretching life expectancy and in the prospects for nanotech — interestingly, both of these views were mirrored in my undergrad class of UH students. — Andy Hines
