by 
We had a great discussion last week at APF on the origins of the foresight field. I was not sure whether to even start the discussion, thinking its geeky academic nature might awaken the “just do it” warriors. We had fun with it, and decided it would be useful to compile what we had and do some further research and do a journal article on it. Jim Dator, Editor of the newly-focused World Future Review, noted that the journal is interested in the histories, current situation, and futures of the field.I’ll share some of the highlights, but first a question for you: when someone asks how long foresight (or futurists) has been around, how do you answer?
An audience member posed that question to me recently. I usually say “just after WW2” so I was doing the math of how many years that was in my head, and I realized I didn’t have a firm start date. That seemed a bit odd, but understandable, given the relative newness of the field. The Houston Foresight program went through a version of this in clarifying our own history — whether we were founded in 1974 and 1975. We ended up choosing 1975, but I suspect I will get at least one comment correcting me that it should be 1974. May I ask that we not get wound too tightly on the question of what year foresight was founded? If I could guide your responses just a tad, my “bias” is the “formal” study of the future. Of course, we’ve always looked to the future.
No matter what date we settle on — assuming we are able to do that — is going to generate some controversy. And that makes total sense. In reviewing the APF responses, compelling cases can be made for a wide range of origins. In trying to pin down a date, I’m inclined to pick 1945 (end of WW2) when the Air Force kicked of Project Rand, which led to the founding of Rand a few years later — and many national planning activities began, and there was some support for that. Thus, as was suggested, we can go as far back as the Oracle of Delphi (or farther). Condorcet got a mention as the “father” and so did St Augustine. HG Wells got a bit more support. And some put the date more recent, such as the founding of WFS, WFSF, or the academic programs. An excellent start on the question (and some hints perhaps) are here: Timeline: APF :Futures of Futures”
Enjoy and I look forward to your thoughts! Andy Hines
Hi Andy, I’ve been giving this question about the history and the future, of foresight some thought lately. I’d argue that this capacity was baked into our genetic makeup from the first (not so distant) days of our existence as a species. A little while back I drafted up an infographic on the subject, and was interested to see your Future of Futures take on the subject. I think this is fast becoming an important topic because prediction is being baked into virtually every technical profession these days.
yes, Dan Gilbert from Harvard has been getting some play with this notion, although his take has been to point out how bad we are with this innate capability. I suppose I would say that like an innate ability, some structure, method, and practice helps!