by Back in 2003, the Association of Professional Futurists, in its inaugural Gathering, did a scenario planning workshop on the future of the field. The idea was that there was no better place to start thinking about the future of the association, than to first map out the potential landscape. The kind of thing we advise clients to do!
I recently reviewed these scenarios with my Seminar class at the University of Houston Futures Studies program. In most cases, we saw some progress in dealing with the four key uncertainties we identified:
- would demand for foresight work increase?
- would significant new methods be developed?
- would the marketplace see futurists as unique vis-a-vis other consultants?
- would futurists/the field work more closely together?
For the first three, we agreed some positive progress could be cited. Foresight demand has increased in some industries and geographies. There has been some methodological innovation with Causal Layered Analysis and Integral Futures as examples. Futurists perhaps have earned a small degree of distinction or “cool” as more and more people are calling themselves futurists. Some progress, perhaps not overwhelming, or as great as hoped, but not bad overall.
We felt that the greatest progress was perhaps made in futurists working together more closely. The emergence of the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) is one example of professional futurists across the globe working together more closely. The APF list has developed a collegiality that commonly involves questions asking for the sharing of expertise that works in a reciprocal fashion and has helped build more formal. collaboration as well. Key longstanding organizations organizations such as the World Futures Studies Federation and World Future Society have been joined by The Millennium Project, which been building an increasingly robust global network from its non-profit platform, and Shaping Tomorrow, which has emerged as an important private sector network.
We saw a potential for even greater cooperation moving forward. It would be really interesting, we thought, to have something like a Summit of as many of the foresight-related organizations as practical. Hmmmm. Andy Hines
A real challenge to the future of the field is the business models necessitated by the fact that its best and brightest are trying to make a living at it. The best foresight work hides behind pay walls so only those with considerable resources have the ability to access it. As long as most foresight work is done by professional futurists, most innovation will be held as competitive secrets. Even in cooperative forums, there is not much incentive for a professional futurist to show his/her entire methodological hand.
I see my foresight skills as being kind of like a Six Sigma Black Belt or a PMI certification. They are not my entire profession, but they add value and perspective to make me an all around better… whatever. I don’t place much credence in the idea that the health of “the field” is driven by the size of the market for Foresight Consultants. I would propose an alternative vision — that the health of the field is driven by the number of non-specialists who use the best foresight tools and ideas to be all around better… whatever they are.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not against making money. In getting started with a professional competency, it’s natural to start by targeting the people who can pay. But unless we can move past that and find business models that can capture other audiences, we are doomed to be a niche field.
I’m working to target materials to engaged couples, young adults, young parents, and non-profits like church ministries. Each life transition is a juncture at which foresight can inform faith, when people are ready to be better at whatever they are trying to be. I see foresight as a competency that can put some legs under people’s dreams and aspirations. In that endeavor I would like to be able to access the minds of some of the world’s best futurists in some sort of cooperative forum without myself or the people I minister to having to scale some sort of pay wall. Foresight, like information and content, ultimately wants to be free. At least most of it, anyway, should be free.
hi Cody,
Makes total sense to me. The goal is that “everyone” approaches their future from a more informed perspective. The more people who are bringing that sensibility to their work–and their lives in general–the better. Maybe the full-time consulting futurists is never more than a small niche?