Exploratory and decision scenarios

Another theme that’s been popping up lately in my work is Pierre Wack’s original notion suggested that exploratory scenarios identified the uncertainties and that decision scenarios helped the organization to plan and do something about them.

I once had the great fortune to spend a day with Napier Collyns talking scenarios and the legacy of his colleague Pierre Wack. He emphasized that their approach involved two sets of scenarios: 1st generation exploratory scenarios and 2nd generation decision scenarios.

Over the course of time, the former GBN’s popular 2×2 approach used a single set of scenarios and became so popular that the exploratory-decision approach largely became forgotten (or perhaps it’s the exploratory scenarios that we see in public and the decision scenarios are kept private). The GBN approach suggested that scenarios could be for either purpose. Even in the case of exploratory scenarios, the approach included an implications workshop that interpreted the scenarios for the client. So, it’s not like the exploratory scenarios ignored a connection to business decisions. It’s fair to say it was a less resource-intensive approach than doing two sets of scenarios, and given issues about budget available for this work, it’s a quite understandable evolution.

That said, I wonder if it’s time to re-introduce the exploratory and decision distinction? I went back to Wack’s classic HBR articles and found this gem: “In emphasizing only uncertainties, and obvious ones at that, the scenarios we had developed were merely first-generation scenarios. They were useful in gaining a better understanding of the situation in order to ask better questions and develop better second- generation scenarios-that is, decision scenarios.”*

And Wilkinson and Kuper’s outstanding history of the Shell scenarios suggested that in terms of evaluating the success of their scenario planning approach, the impact of the global (exploratory) scenarios impact was indirect, whereas the focus (decision) scenarios had a more direct positive impact.**

Hmm. At the very least, it may be that for certain “high-profile” uses of scenario planning, the exploratory-decision approach makes sense. In working with clients who are building an internal foresight function, I suggest a patient approach to building foresight literacy and positive word-of-mouth to earn “permission” to do a large “future of the industry/sector” scenario exploration. I think, perhaps, that’s the place where the exploratory-decision approach makes the best sense. Andy Hines

* Pierre Wack, “Scenarios Uncharted Waters Ahead,” Harvard Business Review, September-October 1985, 76.
** Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers, “Living in the Futures,” Harvard Business Review, May 2013.