A second characteristic of the economic future: bifurcation

To bifurcate is “to divide or fork into two branches.” I am not suggesting this is a good thing, but simply that it is descriptive of what’s been happening and will likely to continue in the present-trends continued (and pre-transformation) economic future. Several aspects of the economic future can be described that way [generally]:

1. Consumer Preferences Are Bifurcating…. One factor is that consumer preferences are bifurcating. [I have decribed this as the “commodity-identity continuum.” We talk about bi-modal shoppers who might but a handbag at Gucci and then go to Walmart for other items. We see a continuum where at one end we just want to make a quick, easy, and cheap choice and at the end, for some purchases that we care a lot about, we’ll spend a lot of time, attention, and money. So we have superstores and boutiques, and the middle — the old department store — has been severely hit.
2. So Is Job Growth Job growth is also strongest at the top and bottom – it’s the middle-class type of jobs that have been hit hardest. Well-paying manufacturing jobs not requiring a high degree of education have shrunk and often gone overseas. For those with a high level of education, job growth has held steady, as it has at the bottom. One area where there is some growth in the middle is the para-professionals, such as paralegals and nurse practitioners. It’s a way to cut costs for using expensive professionals (lawyers) by off-loading some of their tasks to less expensive workers (paralegals).
3. And Wealth And of course, wealth has followed the same pattern, more money at the top and more people at the bottom.

It is worth noting that Higher Ed not currently closing the gap (at least fast enough). Education has been our traditional remedy to providing better jobs, but college graduation rates have grown very, very slowly. But there is hope. Thinking back to our types of change [see the four archetypes here], it may be that higher education is on the verge of a transformation, as new ways to meet the needs of a much broader range of potential students threat to disrupt the existing system and open higher education up. The Lumina Foundation has set a goal of getting higher ed credentials from today’s 40% to 60% in 2025…and I wouldn’t bet against them.

In concluding this piece, I’m thinking of a recent Alternative Perspectives class discussion in which we talked the need for a “healthy spiral” in terms of values and worldview development (referencing Spiral Dynamics). It’s not about getting everyone to higher levels of values and worldviews, but nurturing a robust, healthy set of them across the spectrum, in other words avoiding a bottom-heavy, top-heavy bifurcation. Andy Hines.