by I have written and posted on how forecasting is generally more accurate than at least the media would have you believe — with the caveat the forecasts are often best part of a range of alternatives and intended to provoke thinking, and not necessarily to predict the future (since that is virtually impossible). So, we can get a good sense of the possibilities. But of course, futurists are stilled asked about their accuracy rates. So I’ve been on the lookout for these, having written about my own and my colleagues work, Futurist Editor Ed Cornish, and Ray Kurzweil. Me and my colleagues and Ed came out about 67% accurate; Kurzweil claimed 78% dead on and the rest being close, with just 3% wrong. So far, so good. But, alas, a little cold water was splashed in my face when I re-read former client and colleague Rich Albright‘s wonderful piece: What can past technology forecasts tell us about the future? Technological Forecasting & Social Change 69(2002) 443–464 445. He convened a panel of eight reviewers to evaluate 100 forecasts of of technical innovations made by Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener [1] in their classic The Year 2000, A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years published in 1967. The reviewers found found that fewer than half of the forecasted innovations occurred before the end of the century. I was curious as to why they seemed to find a much lower accuracy rate. So I went through the 100 forecasts myself, and put on my tough grading hat (don’t tell the students, but I’m kind of a softie on grading) and my results were not much different. They found that 40ish% and I netted out at 49% had clearly occurred by the turn of the century. Another 25% were close, but this was not horseshoes. As I discussed in “How Accurate Are Your Forecasts? there are many fine lines in terms of wording and interpretation. Nonetheless, the search continues. If anyone has a good lead on some forecasts that have been evaluated, please pass them along. Andy Hines
About Andy Hines
Dr. Andy Hines is Program Coordinator at the University of Houston’s Graduate Program in Foresight, bringing together the experience he earned as an organizational, consulting, and academic futurist. He is also speaking, workshopping, and consulting through his firm Hinesight.
Before that, he was Managing Director of Social Technologies/Innovaro, and served as an Adjunct Professor with the university since 2004. Hines enjoyed earlier careers as a consulting and organizational futurist. He was a partner with Coates & Jarratt, Inc., a think tank and consulting firm that specialized in the study of the future. He was also Futurist & Senior Ideation Leader at Dow Chemical with a mission of using futures tools and knowledge to turn ideas into new business opportunities. Before that, Hines established and ran the Global Trends Program for the Kellogg Company.
Hines is motivated by a professional hunger to make foresight practical and useful, and he believes that foresight can help deliver the insight that is so needed in today’s organizations and the world. His goal, he says, is to infect as many change agents as possible with this message. Thus, he has honed a skill set designed to make foresight more actionable in organizations.
In this pursuit, he has authored five books: Teaching about the Future: The Basics of Foresight Education (Palgrave Macmillan, 2012); ConsumerShift: How Changing Values Are Reshaping the Consumer Landscape (No Limits Publishing, 2011); Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight (Social Technologies, 2007); 2025: Science and Technology Reshapes US and Global Society (Oak Hill, 1997); and Managing Your Future as an Association (ASAE, 1994) and has another in the hands of publishers: Teaching about the Future: The Basics of Foresight Education. He has also authored dozens of articles, speeches, and workshops, including the 2003 Emerald Literati Awards’ Outstanding Paper accolade for best article published in Foresight for “An Audit for Organizational Futurists” and the 2008 award for “Scenarios: The State of the Art.” He has appeared on several radio and television programs, PBS Houston, KRIV-26 News, and the CBS “Early Show.” He also co-founded and is former Chair of the Association of Professional Futurists.
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