Futurists often get asked to speculate on a technology that we think will “take off” in the next…..say decade. Having been asked recently, thought I’d share a few thoughts on my candidate – 3D printing. Hardly news to keen observers of emerging technologies (apologies), nonetheless I’ll assume general readers of the blog might find it interesting.
A lot of times as futurist we see changes emerge in one sector or industry and then try to imagine how it will diffuse to others. 3D printing is moving from a design and prototyping tool to a method for producing finished goods, enabling a future where certain types of manufacturing are shifted to regional or local fabbing centers—or even he home. It started in areas like automobile parts, but it’ is moving fast into a wide range of application areas. Right now, for instance, early experiments are proceeding in printing replacement organs (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOnIxcc0DW8)
One of the reasons that 3D printing makes sense is that it enables local production, moving away from the need to produce large batches of products in centralized manufacturing plants and then shipping and distributing. It suggests products could be made locally, where they are needed or wanted.
It reinforces a larger trend toward the “long tail” economy where the emphasis is moving away from producing large batches of the same thing in centralized plants to small, decentralized, and distributed production and consumption. Taking it a step further, a these tools enable a “maker” culture, which is moving beyond the idea of diy (do-it-yourself) product design to diy production, do consumers make their own product, tapping a need for co-creation. Place your bets? Andy Hines
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Andy,
Is part of the question when people ask this whether or not people will have 3D printing in their homes, or better stated, what will the home market be for 3D printing. If 3D printing becomes as ubiquitous in homes as microwaves, how does that change manufacturing vs. as you are calling out, I think, that it is less about home use and more about the future of inventory / finished goods sitting in a warehouse waiting to be ordered / purchased.
I really wonder if reduced latencies in home delivery could reduce the interest or need for people to have 3D printers or am I being shortsighted?
Jon
I’ve been offering it as a general response to “what’s a key emerging technology” kind of question. I don’t think it necessarily make sense to take it all the way to the home level, but just use that to point out the possibility. Maybe it’s neighborhood-level?
Yeah, makes total sense – it is such a cool & promising technology. I really wonder where it will go. What are the variables that would drive it to home usage? Price? Ease of use? Etc.