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Last week we tackled the pressure to bring in research dollars. This week we confront a classic chicken-and-egg problem that foresight programs have been battling since we first started back in the 1970s: size. Namely, we’re “too small.” It’s a chicken-and-egg because small programs are generally not supported, thus it is very challenging to grow without resources. Granted, it’s not just lack of support to blame. Foresight as a field is just finding its way, the marketplace is still developing, and overall awareness of foresight, while seemingly growing, is still pretty small.
These circumstances have created a fairly predictable cycle. A new program emerges under guidance (or at least tolerance) of a Dean and does okay for years…until a change of Dean and/or institutional philosophy invites scrutiny and the axe falls on the small, budding program. We know the cases — the wonderful Swinburne program being the latest victim. We at Houston Foresight had a near-death experience when we moved from the Clear Lake campus to the main campus. If not for a friendly faculty advocate and supportive Dean…..
The transition led to a significant dip in our already small numbers, but thankfully after bottoming out a few years ago, we’ve reversed the trend and have been growing steadily and reached numbers that we haven’t seen in more than 15 years! As fate would have it, we’ve got a “new Dean” challenge and are once again under scrutiny.
To be fair, it isn’t that foresight is being picked on. All small programs are under pressure in academia these days. We could insert a rant about state of academia, but let’s not waste our time and energy on that. As futurists know, we need to lay out the future landscape as we see it – not as we wish it was. For now, it’s survive and live to thrive another day. There is an alternative transformation future out there that values small and unique programs. Really! And, meanwhile, the demand for foresight in general seems to be steadily growing. We see more jobs explicitly asking for foresight skills…still small, but growing.
I personally believe there is great value for foresight to have a presence in the university space (but recognize we can survive without it). I can see a day when we not only have Master’s programs cranking out practitioners, but PhD programs producing scholars and research that can provide a solid foundation for a growing field. Challenging now, yes…but thank goodness for the long view. Andy Hines
Perhaps this is an opportunity to rethink the paradigm. Right now my field of software development is undergoing revolutionary change in training and education. People value just in time training that is quick, cheap, and focused on comptency more than credentials. HR cares about degrees, but I want demonstrated skills when I spend my training budget on my people. I want to know what more they’ll be able to do when they get back.
Nowadays a developer gets through HR with a degree, but they get hired on their github pages with working examples of what they’ve done.
I know that there is a basic responsibility to develop the leaders of the field going forward. But you only need a relative few of those. Growth could come from a more agile, skill-based approach to education that leaves students with demonstrable skills and a professional portfolio of work rather than credentials.