Education | Hinesight

Within you or Without You: The “System” and the Future of Higher Education

May 22, 2013 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I recently gave a talk on the future of higher education for “Technology Learning Conference” at the University of Houston-Downtown.

Much of the material came from a project with a foundation exploring the future of higher education to provide context for developing a strategy for achieving its vision of significantly increasing the percentage of adults earning degrees.

Archetype approach

We used the scenario archetype approach, which crafts scenarios using four archetypes or common patterns of change. (The system is the higher education system)

Continuation: The system moves forward along its current trajectory. This is the “official future” and usually considered most likely.
Collapse: The system falls apart under the weight of “negative” forces.
New equilibrium: The system reaches a balance among competing forces that is significantly different from the current balance.
Transformation: The system is discarded in favor of a new one with a new set of rules.

Continuation is possible, that is, between now and 2020 that present trends continue and there are no major surprises in higher education. Not sure I’d bet on that. In any case, that future has been researched to death. Dozens and dozen of reports on the future of higher education pretty much assume a continuation model. So, that one’s covered. Collapse is also possible. We’ll define collapse as graduation rates plummet and higher education is for the elite, like the old days. Yes, possible, but not so interesting to study. Best to look at it in terms of what to avoid.

Change from “Within” or “Without”?

So that leaves us with two interesting archetypes to explore: new equilibrium and transformation. New equilibrium is a scenario in which the higher education system is “challenged” and is able to successfully adapt. Transformation is one in which developments outside the system effectively transform higher education. It reminded me of the old Beatles song called “within you without you.” As someone working to change higher education, should you assume that the system can save itself and adapt to the challenges ahead? In this scenario, system is “shocked” and responds to save itself, most likely via a strong regulatory intervention that gets better results through focus, standardization, and mandates. Technology is important, but plays more of a supporting role than a lead. If you believe this scenario, you work within the system.

Or do you believe that the system is too far gone and will be unable to meet the challenges ahead? In this scenario, the system is transformed by pressure from the outside as new competitors using advanced technology and instructional approaches provide students, business, and society provide a model for traditional institutions to adapt to. Technology is a key driver and leader of the innovation that transforms the system. If you believe this scenario, you work with the players on the fringe that innovating and likely to lead the transformation of the systems.

Or, of course, pursuing a hybrid approach of working both within and without. It is unusual in my experience for there to be such a clear choice ahead. These two archetypes really capture the essence of the strategic choices ahead for those concerned about the future of higher education. You are at the fork in the road – take it! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Foresight Tagged With: archetypes, future, higher education, scenario planning

Reflections on the Future of Cities

April 29, 2013 by Andy Hines 1 Comment

The Houston Futures extended family gathered for a weekend of futures fun on April 12 and 13. While a key purpose is to give students, prospective students, alums, faculty and friends a chance to socialize and network in person, there was also plenty of good discussion about the future. The topic theme on “city making” was curated by alum and Adjunct Faculty Dr. Cindy Frewen. Since Cindy and Dr. Bishop are putting on a summer course on Design Futures and design is an integral feature of city-making.

A great part of these events is getting to see familiar faces who we don’t get to see often enough. Professor Emeritus Oliver Markley kicked off the Saturday conference with a stellar presentation on “Alternative Images for Cities of the Future.” Among the points particularly catching my attention was a video (shareable future of cities) he showed from Alex Steffen of Worldchanging.com that raised the provocative notion that perhaps trying to making “clean energy” vehicles is a misdirected approach to clean, livable cities. Rather, he suggests, get rid of the vehicles altogether. He proceeded to demonstrated how make cities, or areas within cities, denser could effectively eliminate the need for vehicles. If everything is within walking distance, why drive? Brilliant!

Oliver was followed by new friend Todd Gentzel, Chief Strategist at Yaffe Deutser in Houston, who gave a brilliant presentation “Psychology and the Field of the Future.” Among his striking points was the introduction of Philip Zimbardo’s work on the psychology of time. Todd shared his framework of six time perspectives:

· PAST NEGATIVE (ﬁxated on a difﬁcult past)
· PAST POSITIVE (nostalgic for the good old days)
· PRESENT FATALISM (resigned to the forces of fate)
· PRESENT HEDONISM (living in and for the moment)
· FUTURE (planning for a better tomorrow)
· FUTURE TRANSCENDENTAL (anticipating the beyond)

Wonderful, such a handy framework in working with clients or audiences. Definitely something we need to work into our curriculum.

Rives Taylor, Director of Sustainable Design at Gensler, who is going to help out with the Design Futures course this summer, presented “Lessons from Houston: Infrastructure of a Resilient City.” I had to suppress a squeal of delight when Rives presented a slide on Integral Thinking for “Resilience Planning.” The use of the integral 2×2 also had my Alternative Perspectives students in the audience smiling as this was a topic we devoted significant class time to. It’s great to see the spread of sophisticated futures thinking spreading.

Finally, Cindy presented “Great Urban Divides” that addressed the issue of how can cities accommodate the influx of population coming in the emerging markets – with their growing levels of affluence threatening to put a great strain on urban capabilities. My greatest takeaway the sharp drops in population forecast for China and India beginning mid-century. Sure, my mental modeling surmised they would level off, but seeing the graph with the decline was somewhat jarring. Reminds us of the important of taking the long view, which, um, yeah, we’re supposed to be doing!

There was more, but those were some high-level personal highlights for me. Of course, putting a bunch of futurists and friends together for a day, I would expect nothing less. Andy Hines.

Filed Under: Education, Foresight Tagged With: alex steffen, cindy frewen, cities, foresight, future, houston futures, Oliver Markley, rives taylor, todd gentzel, urban

Futurist: specialist or generalist?

April 22, 2013 by Andy Hines 2 Comments

A prospective student raised a question about specialization in foresight in a recent APF listserve conversation. This question is also a frequent one of our Houston Futures grad students. We discussed the question recently in Pro Seminar and did a ”personal branding” exercise to help us think through how we want to present ourselves to the marketplace in doing our foresight work (see “The Personal Brand in Futures“ for additional thoughts) .

There is no “right” answer, of course. It depends on the individual and their circumstances and capabilities. First, to clarify terms. Generalist refers to one who works on a wide range of foresight topic and use a range of tools. I would put myself in that category, having seemingly worked on the future of almost everything over the last 20+ years. Specialist refers to one who picks a particular domain or topical interest, and becomes an expert in it, along the lines of an “energy futurist,” “transportation futurist,” “legal futurist,” etc. It may also be possible to be a “single method” futurist and brand your expertise in say, doing a particular type of scenario technique, or perhaps being expert simulations and gaming. I haven’t seen much of this, but is seems plausible. For instance, when I think of CLA (causal layered analysis), I think of Sohail.

And, of course, there are hybrid versions. Mostly generalist with some specialization. In my case, for instance, I’ve done so much work on consumer insight and values that I know present that as a specialization. I suspect, over time, that many generalists find this happening. Or you start as a specialist and gradually expand into new areas.

For students, though, is there a better way? One clue might be whether the student already has a subject matter expertise and can then futurize it. It may be that an undergrad major or work experience provides the foundation for specialization. It is probably a bit easier to break into professional foresight with a specialization, as it addresses the credibility question. It’s perhaps tougher to break in as a generalist, unless you are willing to pay your dues and start at the bottom. These are the days of entry-level research assistant that I remember, hmm, somewhat fondly.

It also helpful to take stock of what makes you happy. Would you be okay being narrowly focused, perhaps going over the same ground, giving the same talk, again and again? Or do you live for the challenge of always breaking new ground – and being okay with the risk that you’re going to miss something obvious in an area new to you (every generalist’s nightmare)?

It depends, but knowing yourself and your anticipated brand can help you point you in the desired direction, and, of course, we can always change. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Foresight Tagged With: APF, foresight, futurist, generalist, houston futures, professional futurist, specialist

Teaching about the Future is here!

October 9, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

The second book-writing collaboration between Peter Bishop and myself has produced a new textbook, Teaching about the Future: The Basics of Foresight Education, published by Palgrave MacMillan. This book brings together more than thirty-five years of experience in teaching about the future from the University of Houston’s Graduate Program in Futures Studies.

In addition to serving as a text for the UH foresight program, we hope to spread the practice of teaching futures studies and strategic foresight to the rest of the academic world by showing how it’s done at UH. We believe that students at all levels of education would benefit from instruction on how to think about and indeed influence the future. Our goal is that educators teach as much about the future as they do about the past. After all, the future is where we are all going to live!

We would like to thank all of the extended Houston Futures community for being a part of this textbook. The program today is the result of countless contributions over the years that have adjusted, changed, modified, added and subtracted to the current curriculum. Our job with this book was to “get it on paper” and share it with the world.

The curriculum is summarized in a comprehensive fashion, so that those seeking to introduce foresight to their schools have a conceptual guide from which to select and design curricula or classes of their own. The book is organized into three parts:

Part One, Understanding, contains the conceptual backdrop to thinking about the future.
Part Two, Mapping, describes how to construct forecasts of potential future outcomes or alternative futures.
Part Three, Influencing, explores how to take action to shape the future.

Individual topics range from the basics of scanning, forecasting, visioning, and planning to social change, systems thinking, and alternative perspectives. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Books, Education, Foresight Tagged With: andy hines, foresight, foresight education, peter bishop, teaching about the future

Great list of books on global education

September 25, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I was forwarded a list: 14 Best Books about Global Education and it is definitely worth passing on. The impact of globalization on education ought to receive more attention than it does. It’s a clearly and emerging issue of vital importance to the future. For some, it is “old hat” already — pockets of the world are all over it. Yet for so many in the mainstream of education, it is somewhat of an alien concept. This phenomenon is not unique to the issue — many times we have emerging issues entrenched in the fringe but unable to reach the core….yet, we should add. (Daresay we add Coursera and open education to this list?).

ConsumerShift readers might enjoy considering what “values types” inform the perspective being presented in these works. Are the works about how we can all learn together in win-win’s? Or is there concern or even panic about new upstarts who are going to beat us? Or practical ways to achieve the best results? Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Foresight, Values Tagged With: Consumershift, coursera, education, emerging issues, global, values

Houston Futures Certificate Alums featured in The Futurist

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I was happy to see that two of our week-long Certificate in Strategic Foresight alums were recently featured in a special report from The Futurist, summarized in a story on our blog. Good to know that the alums are applying and sharing their knowledge with the wider futurist community. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Foresight Tagged With: Houston Futures certificate, The Futurist

Houston Futures Studies at the World Future Society General Assembly 2012

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

The University of Houston’s Futures Studies program—as always–is well-represented at this year’s World Future Society General Assembly. The event is being held in Toronto from July 27-29 at the Sheraton Centre with over 1,000 participants expected.

Futures Studies’ faculty, alums, and Advisory Board members are leading four one-day pre-conference courses.

Introduction to Futures Studies, Peter Bishop
An Insider’s Guide to Foresight Consulting: A Case-Study Approach, Andy Hines (with Riel Miller)
Scenario Planning: How to Build and Use Scenarios, Alum Adam Gordon
Wiser Futures: Using Futures Tools to Better Understand and Create the Future, Advisory Board Member Clem Bezold

They are also leading nine regular conference sessions, joined by current students as well:

The Best of Houston Futures, Dr. Peter Bishop, moderator, with Jason Swanson, student, Learning Management Systems: Machines That Think; Josh Lindenger, student, Locative Media: The Internet Always Knows Where You Are; Emily Empel, Graduate, and Heather Schlegel, Student, A Systems Model of the Demographic Transition
Chemical Brain Preservation: How to Live “Forever,” Alum John Smart
The Future of Shopping: An Immersive Experience, Alum Emily Empel & Current Student Heather Schlegel
Global Futures Collective Intelligence System Advisory Board Member Ted Gordon (with Jerry Glenn)
Our Role in Shaping the Future, Alum & Former Faculty Jennifer Jarratt (with John Mahaffie)
Scouting the Future with the Implications Wheel, Advisory Board Member Joel Barket
The Evolution of Integral Futures, Faculty Terry Collins and Andy Hines
Primary Care 2025 Advisory Board Member Clem Bezold
Models of Futures Education for the 21st Century, Alum Verne Wheelright (with others)
Networked Government: The 21st Century Agency, Alum John Jackson (with others)

We are pleased to see our community well represented and look forward to a great conference! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Foresight, Talks Tagged With: conference, Futures Studies, houston futures, World Future Society

Alternative Perspectives on the Future

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines 3 Comments

I’m pleased to be able to offer a new elective in our Futures Studies Master’s program this fall called “Alternative Perspectives on the Future.” It will bring together “different” concepts and methods for understanding, mapping, and influencing the future. We will focus some on students’ personal development as a futurist, exploring values, worldviews, styles, etc. We will explore two newer perspectives/methods in some depth – Causal Layered Analysis and Integral Futures – giving them fuller and more focused attention. We’ll also look at some visionary thinking tools, such as Future Time Travel, Appreciative Inquiry, and Presencing. Many alum might remember Oliver Markley’s Visionary Futures class — we’ll bring back some elements from that.

The course also gives us a greater opportunity to discuss the philosophical implications of studying the future. We’ll apply these tools to some “big questions” about the future. At the same time, we’ll maintain a focus on application, looking at “newer” approaches such as Action Research (not really all that new!)

You know you have a good topic when people want to help! One of grad students, Dennis Coffey, is helping me to build the course as part of his Master’s Project this summer. Dennis is already an accomplished scholar and university professor, who is doing the futures degree because it’s interesting. He has really taken an interest in Integral/CLA/creativity and has helped our program grow into these areas. And a former grad student, Terry Collins, now an Adjunct with us at UH, has emerged as an Integral Futures scholar and is going to help me teach the class this fall. Now that’s teamwork. Really excited about this! Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Foresight Tagged With: alternative perspectives, course, education, foresight, houston futures

Strategic Foresight Certificate in Europe this Spring

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

We just finished teaching our week-long Strategic Foresight Course in Houston last week. A really great group. I’m sure you teacher/facilitators can appreciate it when you have a special group, and we had one! Now, it’s on to Europe — after the Spring Semester that begins today. We taught our first week-long Certificate course in Europe last year and hope to continue at least once a year. We’re also doing another certificate course in the Houston in May (yes, we like to teach). So, you readers interested in the future, perhaps you’ll take it to the next step in the not-too-distant-future. Andy Hines

Info on the Europe course below:

The University of Houston, with 35 years of educating foresight professionals, in partnership with
The Destree Institute 25 years of field experience in foresight, is offering a Certificate in Strategic Foresight, a 5-day project based workshop – May 28- June 1, 2012 in Brussels, Belgium.

Overview
The Strategic Foresight program is offered as a 5-day, project-based, face-to-face workshop.
Participants learn to anticipate disruptive change and work towards the creation of transformational change, in order to influence the future of their organizations, companies and communities.
Participants will receive 4 CEUs for attending, and can obtain the certificate if they complete a project within a given number of weeks after the program delivery.
Providing professionals with tools to help navigate today’s constantly changing business environment and create a positive future for their communities, regions, enterprises and themselves.
€ 1930, if registered before February, 15th
€ 2125, if registered between February, 15th and April, 15th
€ 2320, if registered between April 15th and May 25th, or walk-in registration
=> Registration
Registration form
Bank : ING, rue Godefroid 5000 Namur (BE) ‐ IBAN : BE57 3501 0063 8835 ‐ BIC : BBRUBEBB400
Last day for conference rate hotel rooms:
May 1st, 2012 – See the Metropole Registration Form
Questions about content
See the curriculum
Short biography
Dr. Peter Bishop pbishop [at] uh.edu
Andy Hines ahines [at] uh.edu
Philippe Destatte destatte.philippe [at] institut‐destree.eu
Questions about registration or logistics
Philippe Destatte: +32 81 234 395 – destatte.philippe [at] institut-destree.eu
Accommodations: the Métropole Hotel [pdf]
Participants are responsible for their hotel reservations and transportation. The Métropole Hotel will reserve a number of rooms at a special price if reservations are made a month before the event.

http://www.institut-destree.eu/Reseaux/Houston-University_Strategic-Foresight.htm

Filed Under: Education, Foresight Tagged With: brussells, certificate, strategic foresight

Values Changes Following a Developmental Model of Social Change

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I’m teaching a class on Social Change this semester in the Houston Futures program. The class was developed by Peter Bishop and is a great favorite of the students (and me, too). In the class, we explore ten different theories of social change, that is, how do societies change, or how does one form of society succeed another? I’ll leave a discussion of the ten types for another post, and focus on the connection to the values changes we’ve been discussing as part of ConsumerShift.

The social change theory best describing the values changes is called “development.” Development Theory states that there is a consistent direction to change in societies over time. Bishop notes that it is related to another set of familiar changes—the cycle of life from birth, through growth and maturity. Newborns of all species develop into adults using generally the same process as all other members of the species. Thus the adults of the species are larger than infants and are significantly more capable of doing whatever that species does—running, climbing, vocalizing, defending, and, of course, procreating.

It suggests that social change is analogous to how an organism develops new capabilities over time — they change in a consistent direction toward becoming more complex, not necessarily better. We don’t say that adults are better than the infants, but they are clearly more developed and possess capabilities and a level of complexity that infants do not. They are just at a different point of development.

The same point holds true for values. ConsumerShift suggests that the development pattern the societies follow — if they are willing and able — is from traditional to modern to postmodern and finally integral values. It is not saying that one type is better than another, but further along in development. A key difference from the life-cycle of an organism, however, is that societies can choose whether to develop or not, whereas organisms cannot. A society may find itself quite comfortable with traditional values and choose to stay there, or with modern values, or with postmodern.

As noted in previous posts, the pattern is that as societies develop economically, their values tend to develop in a similar fashion. Traditional societies, for instance, tend to be rather less developed economically, but as they begin to achieve economic growth, they begin to embrace modern values (which “favor” growth and achievement). This is going on in a big way in China, for instance, as it has grown rapidly in recent years. Similarly, as modern societies develop into affluent societies, they embrace postmodern values. This is especially evident in Northern Europe, where these affluent countries are the most postmodern in the world.
Thus, the development theory of social change underpins the values changes in ConsumerShift—suggesting change in a consistent direction over time, and, as suggested in previous posts, this pattern has been validated by the data in the World Values Survey. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Education, Values Tagged With: foresight, Futures Studies, houston futures, social change, values

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