Balanced View of Emerging AI & Automation

One the one hand, “we are at an inflection point—the early stages of a shift as profound as that brought on by the Industrial Revolution.” On the other, “We are also skeptical of efforts to come up with fundamental alternatives to capitalism.” The authors take an even-handed balanced approach in exploring the impact of AI and automation. If you’re looking for a definitive position, you won’t find it here. But I found the even-handedness a strength of the book, despite my obvious leanings towards need to come up with alternatives to capitalism. They let the reader reach their own conclusions.

The evidence they provide is interesting, engaging, and informative.  They are a bit cautious at times. For instance, on the plausibility of the Singularity or the Terminator? “We honestly don’t know….wise never to say never.” But they also make bold statements where the evidence warrants it. For instance, “technological progress is going to leave behind some people, perhaps even a lot of people. The “perhaps” softens it a bit, but the statement is pretty clear.

Let’s look at another case where it’s left for you to decide:

• Our second conclusion is that the transformations brought about by digital technology will be profoundly beneficial ones.
• Our third conclusion is less optimistic: digitization is going to bring with it some thorny challenges.

Put another way, they see AI/automation/machines bringing about a great bounty, but they also see it contributing to greater spread, or greater inequality. The potential for inequality growth is quite compelling. They suggest superstars will fare very well at the expense of the rest of us. The top 20% of knowledge worker elites will do fine (but nowhere near as well as the superstars). And everyone else, well….I’d characterize it as “fighting for crumbs,” but they are more moderate. Though hardly comforting, I agree with their point: “In the long run, the biggest effect of automation is likely to be on workers not in America and other developed nations, but rather in developing nations that currently rely on low-cost labor for their competitive advantage.”

A couple of nice little nuggets:

• They bring in futurist Kevin Kelly’s quip: “You’ll be paid in the future based on how well you work with robots.”
• They talk about the importance of innovation, and address the school of thought suggesting stagnation is ahead. They neatly characterize it as whether the ‘innovation-as-building-block’ (more and more to come) view versus innovation-as-fruit view (we’ve picked the low-hanging fruit and it’s going to be harder.

Again, depending on your predisposition, you are likely to interpret the evidence they present one way or the other. In today’s increasingly polarized world, I found the balanced approach refreshing, and thoroughly enjoyed the book. – Andy Hines

 

 

 

 

 

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