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To Organizational Futurists: Enter the Fray!

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

An interesting learning from my dissertation on the role of organizational futurists in integrating foresight into organizations was that my early hunch about the political nature of the role indeed seems promising. My advisor at Leeds Metropolitan University, Jeff Gold, steered me toward the work of social constructionists, such as Ken Gergen, John Shotter, Vivien Burr and many others. The social constructionists suggest that people jointly construct meaning about the world. If you will reality itself is socially constructed. I had dabbled with these ideas with Berger and Luckmann’s 1967 classic The Social Construction of Reality, and now count myself persuaded!

The organizational futurist role, as I’ve characterized it, suggests an insider approach [see “Which type of futurist are you?”] but recognizes that other approaches, such as the provocateur, are viable and useful as well –but not as appropriate to this role. The key rationale is that the socially constructed nature of meaning-making in the organization (and for that matter of the future itself) involves a high degree of dialogue and negotiation that is difficult to effectively participate in from outside the organization (i.e., in a consulting futurist role). The organizational futurist benefits from being “closer” to the inner workings of organization.

Three quotes illustrate how dialogue, rhetoric and argumentation are central to this meaning-making process, and the need for participation is vital.

  • Cunliffe (pp.653-654), suggests “knowledge is ephemeral, indeterminate, embedded, and reflexive, thus one must be present with it.”
  • Gergen (1985, p.267) notes that “the process of understanding is not automatically driven by the forces of nature, but is the result of an active, cooperative enterprise of persons in relationship.”
  • Shotter (1999, p. 371) adds that…”our actions are, to an extent, responsively shaped by what occurs around us.”

If an organizational futurist accepts this argument, it suggests that rather than shrinking from organization life and its accompanying politics, it must be embraced. In other words, enter the fray to advance the cause of integrating foresight into your organization! Andy Hines

References

Cunliffe, A. (2011) Crafting qualitative research: Morgan and Smircich 30 years on. Organizational Research Methods, 14 (4), pp.647-673.

Gergen, K. (1985) The social constructionist movement in modern psychology. American Psychologist, 40 (3), pp. 266-275.

Shotter, J. (1999) A third way: from units and categories to dialogically structured, responsive, practical understandings. Human Development, 42, pp.369-375.

Filed Under: Foresight Tagged With: Berger, Burr, Cunliffe, foresight, futurists, Gergen, Luckman, organizational futurist, politics, reality, Shotter, social constructionism

Emerging Need State 16: Local preference

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Valuing local origins to support local community as well as reduce environmental impacts

“Local Preference” is the first of three emerging need states at the core of fifth meta need “Community First” in ConsumerShift.

These consumers will demonstrate their community support by spending their time and money within the community, where possible. They put a great value on relationships, and their core needs are friendship, social contact, and closeness to people. They see spending money within the community and supporting local businesses as an investment. They also see it as a reward to their friends and colleagues, and expect that their support of local offerings will benefit the larger community. They may pay a bit extra for something at the local hardware store instead of saving money by shopping at the big national or multinational chain, particularly if that chain is seen as taking profits out of the local community and not doing enough to give back. Similarly, if they are inclined to do volunteer work, they will seek out local options where possible, again seeing this as an investment that will enhance the community and create a better life for themselves as well.

Another driver is a feeling of the global community and economy increasingly being at risk. A sense of limits to growth and expansion gives way to a sense of constraints, and a personal need to scale back one’s lifestyle. They are worried about the interdependence and fragility of the global economy and see it as a wise course to help develop local options. There is a slight retreat from participation in things global. This downsizing is also driven in part by the idea that shipping goods and services across the globe is an environmentally questionable practice. Buying locally is seen as better for the environment, even if there are instances where this is not the case. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, local, need states, values

Emerging Need State 15: Pursuit of happiness, aka well-being

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Evaluating product, service and experience offerings in terms of how they contribute to my—and in many cases my community’s—happiness and well-being

“Pursuit of happiness, aka well-being” is the sixth of six emerging need states at the core of our fourth meta need “The [relentless] pursuit of happiness” in ConsumerShift.

These consumers weigh choices in terms of how they add to or subtract from their overall sense of well-being. Their core needs are appreciating life and they are often idealistic in this approach. They believe happiness is available to those willing to make the effort—it is not simply granted, but earned.

Their sense of happiness is perhaps different than the popular perception of being all laughs and smiles and more along the lines of contentment. They may not show outward signs of happiness, but will exude an air of satisfaction. They appreciate life challenges and their ability to handle them. They are typically well connected to family, friends, and networks and are active members in the communities they belong to, whether physical or virtual. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, happiness, need states, values, well-being

Resilience and the Future of Everyday Life

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

I’m pleased to recommend Houston Futures graduate Jim Lee’s new book Resilience and the Future of Everyday Life. Jim provides us with a highly engaging and readable account that points out some very serious issues looming ahead. His persistent focus on solutions, with lots of examples and stories of the positive changes already taking place, gives us hope that we’ll be up to the challenge. This is a great book for those who want to understand the challenges ahead and get a sense of what we as a society and they as individuals can do about them.

Part One lays out the challenges, with appropriately titled chapters, “Gloom,” “Doom,” and “Toward a New Culture.” Part lays out the solutions, with “Make Me a Revolution,” Homesteading,” “Community,” “Sharing More, Shopping Less,” “Radical Economics,” “Working It,” “Post-Nuclear Family,” “Retooling,” “Eldering,” and “A Path to Fulfillment.”

Readers of ConsumerShift should find Jim’s work  of interest as he applies ideas of how changing values might show up in everyday life by sharing stories at the leading edge of change today.

His knack for storytelling makes this a difficult book to put down. Enjoy! Andy Hines

 

Filed Under: Foresight, Values Tagged With: economics, Resilience and the Future of Everyday Life, review, values

Futurist an awesome job….that most haven’t heard of

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Houston Futures alum and new futurist at Disney Emily Empel brought my attention to a piece, 7 Jobs You’ve Never Heard Of – And Why They’re Awesome, that mentions futurists as one of 7 awesome jobs that people have not heard of. The article suggests that futurist is one of the jobs where people scratch their head wondering “what do they do?”

I suspect we futurists could do a better job sharing that – maybe a “day in our lives” to people a sense of what we do. I remember when Graham Bowley of the Financial Times followed me around for a day (published as “The Time Lords”) trying to get this sense of what we do, and he seemed a bit disappointed that it was pretty “normal:” lots of computer and phone work.

Of the seven jobs the article lists — 1. Chief Listening Officer, 2. Food Stylist, 3. Global Mobility Consultant, 4. Computational Linguist, 5. Greensman, 6. Parabolic Expert, 7. Futurist – I suspect futurist has been around the longest. Futurists are perceived as new even though we’ve been around for decades. Nonetheless, it is a positive to see more mainstream coverage and that it’s favorable.

That said, it’s a bit disappointing as to how the futurist job is characterized. For instance, “Your predictions about shifting trends help to guide future business decisions.” Clearly they are referring to pop trendspotting kinds of positions. Okay, it’s a start. We’ll have plenty of work to do on “predictions” [insert standard rant here]. Again, good to see the job futurist portrayed in a positive light and the ball is in our court to frame the conversation about the range of what futurists do — as more such stories come out as interest in the future and futurists grows. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Foresight, Work Tagged With: career, futurists, jobs, work

Emerging Need State 14: I am not a consumer

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Demanding to be treated as a whole person, not just a statistic that makes purchases

“I am not a consumer” is the fifth of six emerging need states at the core of our fourth meta need “The [relentless] pursuit of happiness” in ConsumerShift.

Some consumers resent the label of consumer. They are antagonistic to the importance of consuming, and find the notion of a consumer economy to be wrong-headed. They see it as a confusion of means and ends. The sentiment is that people don’t live just to consume even though they must consume to live. They have core needs around acceptance and self-respect, and they feel that being labeled as consumers is disrespectful to their way of life.

They see themselves as having transcended or outgrown the consumer way of life. They will generally resist attempts at categorization or typecasting, as they feel this misses the unique aspect of who they are. They expect, even demand, to be understood and appreciated. Andy Hines

 

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: anti-consumerism, consumer understanding, Consumershift, values

Emerging Need State 13: Reinventing the self

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Continuing desire to expand one’s skills, capabilities, and purposes

“Reinventing the self” is the fourth of six emerging need states at the core of our fourth meta need “The [relentless] pursuit of happiness” in ConsumerShift.

The search for meaning and purpose does not necessarily follow a straight line. The discovery process has twists and turns that could lead to minor and perhaps major reinterpretations of one’s identity. These consumers are prepared to redefine themselves as part of the discovery process. They have a core need for reaching their fullest potential and will leave no stone unturned in that pursuit.

For instance, they may become more aware of environmental issues, perhaps seeing an image of the polar icecaps melting, and be catalyzed into learning more. This investigation may lead them to fairly dramatic changes in behavior, in effect cleaning house around this issue: switching to a hybrid vehicle, buying energy-efficient windows, etc.  Andy Hines

 

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, reinventing self, values

Houston Futures Studies at the World Future Society General Assembly 2012

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

The University of Houston’s Futures Studies program—as always–is well-represented at this year’s World Future Society General Assembly. The event is being held in Toronto from July 27-29 at the Sheraton Centre with over 1,000 participants expected.

Futures Studies’ faculty, alums, and Advisory Board members are leading four one-day pre-conference courses.

  • Introduction to Futures Studies, Peter Bishop
  • An Insider’s Guide to Foresight Consulting: A Case-Study Approach, Andy Hines (with Riel Miller)
  • Scenario Planning: How to Build and Use Scenarios, Alum Adam Gordon
  • Wiser Futures: Using Futures Tools to Better Understand and Create the Future, Advisory Board Member Clem Bezold

They are also leading nine regular conference sessions, joined by current students as well:

  • The Best of Houston Futures, Dr. Peter Bishop, moderator, with Jason Swanson, student,  Learning Management Systems: Machines That Think; Josh Lindenger, student, Locative Media: The Internet Always Knows Where You Are; Emily Empel, Graduate, and Heather Schlegel, Student, A Systems Model of the Demographic Transition
  • Chemical Brain Preservation: How to Live “Forever,” Alum John Smart
  • The Future of Shopping: An Immersive Experience, Alum Emily Empel & Current Student Heather Schlegel
  • Global Futures Collective Intelligence System Advisory Board Member Ted Gordon (with Jerry Glenn)
  • Our Role in Shaping the Future, Alum & Former Faculty Jennifer Jarratt (with John Mahaffie)
  • Scouting the Future with the Implications Wheel, Advisory Board Member Joel Barket
  • The Evolution of Integral Futures, Faculty Terry Collins and Andy Hines
  • Primary Care 2025 Advisory Board Member Clem Bezold
  • Models of Futures Education for the 21st Century, Alum Verne Wheelright (with others)
  • Networked Government: The 21st Century Agency, Alum John Jackson (with others)

We are pleased to see our community well represented and look forward to a great conference! Andy Hines

 

Filed Under: Education, Foresight, Talks Tagged With: conference, Futures Studies, houston futures, World Future Society

Emerging Need State 12: Systematic and consistent

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Looking to fit products and services into larger lifestyle, values, and sense of purpose

“Systematic and consistent” is the fourth of six emerging need states at the core of our fourth meta need “The [relentless] pursuit of happiness” in ConsumerShift.

These consumers are extremely thoughtful and conscientious. Their core needs of spirituality and the search for meaning serve as guideposts for their decision-making. They not only consider how their decisions and actions fit with their own values and sense of purpose, but also how they affect others, ranging from immediate family to community to the planet as a whole. They typically have a highly developed environmental consciousness and are aware of how their actions affect the environment.

They are systems thinkers, even though most will not have had any formal training in it, but it’s a part of their style. They have a sense of the big picture and weigh individual decisions against the impact on the big picture. They are continually assessing their own performance in this regard. If they are committed to wellness, for example, they will be troubled by their daily consumption of donuts or other dietary habits at odds with this value.

They are patient and persistent in pursuit of their goals. They enjoy the process of getting to their goals—they are not in a hurry. They are willing to pause when necessary, even take a step backwards, but they will resume their journey when practical. They may weigh a decision for quite some time before acting, but once they are “in,” they are committed. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, need state, purpose, systematic, values

Emerging Need State 11: Identity products, services, and experiences

September 1, 2012 by Andy Hines Leave a Comment

Investing great time, attention, and money in offerings seen to be important to one’s identity, while price shopping on others

“Identity products, services, and experiences” is the second of six emerging need states at the core of our fourth meta need “The [relentless] pursuit of happiness” in ConsumerShift.

These consumers see their choices of products, services, and experiences as making fundamental statements about their identity, which is a core need for them. The choice of whom to do business with or which products to buy helps express their sense of self. Thus, these decisions are thoughtful ones.

Buying a hybrid vehicle, for instance, is an expression of a person’s environmental values. While this expression is fundamentally directed at one’s sense of self, there is an element of wanting to share their identity with others: “This is who I am and what I’m about.” It is not necessarily about converting others to a particular cause, but letting others know who you are and what you stand for. Andy Hines

Filed Under: Values Tagged With: consumer understanding, Consumershift, identity, prius, values
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